GLOBAL UNREST FRONTIER (2026–2035)

Core Thesis:
2026 is the definitive transition from a managed instability system to an uncontainable stress phase across economic, political, technological, and environmental domains.

Key Drivers of the Shift:

1. Policy Exhaustion – Monetary and fiscal buffers fully consumed by 2025.
2. Debt Peaks – Refinancing walls collide with fiscal constraints.
3. Structural Cost Pressures – Food and energy volatility locked in; inflation outpaces wages.
4. Youth Expectation Gap – Largest educated cohort meets shrinking opportunity space.
5. Climate Integration – Weather volatility becomes a constant operational constraint.
6. Conflict Spillover – Regional wars transmit shocks globally through commodities, migration, and markets.
7. Information Weaponization – Deepfakes and automated narrative attacks erode institutional trust faster than policy can respond.

Impact Pattern:

• Not a single collapse event
• Series of rapid shocks followed by prolonged partial recoveries
• Continuous political, economic, and emotional fatigue

Probability Outlook (Post-2026):

• Persistent unrest baseline: 80–85%
• Multiple regional disruptions annually: 60–70%
• Major systemic escalations: 12–20% with high impact potential

Duration Assessment:

• Minimum instability cycle: 7–8 years
• Most likely: 10–15 years
• Extended tail risk: 20+ years
  Peak volatility window: 2026–2032
  Partial stabilization: 2032–2035

Strategic Implications:

• Capital preservation beats aggressive expansion
• Health and resilience become economic assets
• Narrative discipline and information filters are essential
• Geographic and supply chain diversification critical

Bottom Line:
2026 marks the irreversible loss of coordinated control mechanisms.
The ability to operate effectively in permanently stressed systems will define winners and losers through the next decade.