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Scalpers always buy to sell later at a higher price and they will exist at any price, no? It'll just be more organized, well-funded scalpers? Also the higher the price per ticket, the smaller the line stander fee would seem. If you're paying 1000 per ticket, paying some guy min wage to stand in line is closer to nothing.
No, because they can't charge a price higher than the secondary market will bear. For example, if people are willing to pay $1,000 a ticket and the upfront price is $500, scalpers stand to make $500. But if the upfront price is $980, the scalper can only make $20, which may not be worth their time. If the upfront price is $1,000, then scalpers can't make a profit at all.
This simplifies reality, of course, because the secondary market is full of many different people, and maybe some are willing to pay more than $1,000. But as the price goes up, there will be fewer and fewer people from whom the scalpers can profit off of, and there may not be a guarantee that they can find a willing buyer, making scalping a less profitable and more risky activity overall.
Scalpers are a different behaviour group from the line standers. Scalpers will always exist and aim to buy as many tickets as they can move, the line stander is someone paid by one person to get a ticket. And if they start to behave like scalpers, the lines get even more blurred. I still think higher prices wouldn't curtail the behaviour. This is also ignoring that the well to do procure their tickets from the companies they work for, etc
Let's just do a thought experiment, then. Suppose the upfront price of a Pokemon card pack is $1 billion per pack. Do you think there would still be scalpers?
Yes. At that point we'd call them investors, but yes. Buying charizards is lower time preference, but it's pretty much the same behaviour. The scalper in this case is the guy who would have bought whole boxes of cards early on.
I'm surprised that you think there'd still be a market at all at those prices.
I spoke of inequality at first. If the prices go up of course wealthier people will still buy the tickets.
Anyway, my only point is that if upfront prices go up, the number of scalpers and line-waiters should go down. I think my reasoning is pretty sound, but If you disagree, I don't really have time to convince you.
If the price is high, there won't be as much potential profits for the scalpers. And the lines would be shorter, which reduces the incentive to pay for people to wait in line for you.