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phones are a pretty good example: there really isn't any widespread device manufacturer that poses a risk to the iphone-android duopoly (it's a little messy because android runs on lots of different manufacturer's devices, but there is something that leads to the two app stores dominance).

Will it take regulation to change this? Or will regulation just distort the market even worse, actually hindering the emergence of a third option?

I can certainly see a world where the market doesn't fix this problem.

this territory is moderated
I can certainly see a world where the market doesn't fix this problem.

Same. Though we also have to distinguish between long-run and short-run. If the duopoly becomes too shitty, they'll still maintain dominance in the short-run, but in the long-run a better alternative is likely to emerge.

The level of their enshittification also depends on the viability of alternatives. If viable alternatives exist, even if they're niche, it could prevent the duopoly from becoming too crappy.

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