Beyond market reaction there is reputational and operational blowback. Mining hardware is not infinitely redeployable across chains and once an attack is attempted the attacker becomes a known quantity. That identity risk bleeds into the derivatives space. Counterparties may refuse to fill positions or demand collateral that eats into the profitability of the strategy.

It is also important to consider that Bitcoin security is not just about hardware procurement and block production speed. Network participants continually monitor chain health. A successful attack that double spends or reorganizes a chain deep enough to undermine confidence would trigger coordinated countermeasures, from temporarily halting withdrawals to hard forks designed to invalidate malicious blocks. These defensive actions can nullify the profit thesis if they happen quickly enough.

So while the arithmetic of large derivative volumes versus smaller hardware investments is compelling in isolation it does not capture the strategic and social barriers that make such an operation far riskier than it appears on paper.