The commodity has risen an impressive +175% in 2025, on track to close eight consecutive months of gains—something unprecedented since 1980.

But what explains an "old" metal humiliating Bitcoin and the stock market? The answer involves a collapse of inventories in London and China, and a brutal shift in the flow of global money.

Understand this historic movement in detail!

1️⃣ The "Great Divergence": Real Assets vs. Paper Assets

2025 marked the end of traditional correlation. While the S&P 500 had a good year (+17%), metals soared: Gold rose 4x more (+72%) and Silver 10x more (+174%).

Together, they added US$16 trillion in value.

This is not just speculation; it's the global market repricing the value of "tangible assets".

2️⃣ The Dollar and the "Trump Factor" (Negative Real Interest Rates)
The first key factor is the macroeconomic trigger.

The dollar had already depreciated by 9% this year, but the perception of weakening was accelerated by Trump's speech on December 12th. By asking for interest rates of "1% or less," he signaled a future of negative real interest rates.

If inflation is 3% and interest rates are 1%, those who leave money in the bank lose purchasing power. The only way out is to buy real assets (such as silver), which has risen 41% this month alone, anticipating this scenario.

3️⃣ The Flight from Government Bonds

Normally, when the Fed cuts interest rates, Treasury bonds appreciate. In 2025, the opposite occurred: the long-term Treasury bond ETF ($TLT) fell -12%.

The reason? Fiscal risk and long-term inflation expectations. The market demands a higher risk premium to finance the exploding US debt.

Investors know that the Fed controls the short term, but fiscal risk dictates the long term. Capital fled from bonds to metals.

4️⃣ China's "Hidden" Strategy (Demand Factor)

It's not just private investors rushing into metals; China is leading the game, but quietly.

Officially, they reported purchasing 24 tons.

Goldman Sachs estimates the real volume at 240 tons (10 times more).

They use the London over-the-counter (OTC) market to accumulate "off the radar." While the market flees from bonds, China flees from the dollar.

5️⃣ The Supply Shock (Part 1): The Great Wall of China

Beyond the macro trigger and demand, starting January 1st, China will block unlicensed silver exports for several reasons:

Solar War: By blocking exports, they guarantee domestic supply and stifle Western competition.

De-dollarization: Exchanging dollar reserves for real assets.

As a result, a total price disconnection. In Shanghai, silver trades at a premium of ~US$5/oz over the rest of the world. China intentionally pays more to "dry up" global supply.

6️⃣ Panic in London: The Domino Effect

The Chinese "vacuum cleaner" dried up the global market, and the shock reached London. Today, buyers are paying a 7% premium to receive the silver NOW instead of waiting a year.

This is Backwardation. Under normal conditions, the future is more expensive (storage costs, interest). When the spot price explodes, it's the ultimate sign of physical scarcity: nobody wants promises, everyone wants the metal in their hand.

7️⃣ The Largest Money Flow in History

Institutional fear of missing out (FOMO) is in full swing.

Gold and silver funds have seen net inflows of $34.2 billion in just the last 10 weeks — the largest flow ever recorded.

The money isn't just "investing"; it's fleeing.

It's the largest outflow from fiat currencies to real assets ever recorded.

8️⃣ Bitcoin loses its "Digital Gold" shine

The thesis that Bitcoin would replace gold failed in 2025. While silver rose 174%, Bitcoin fell -5.5%.

In times of real uncertainty and manipulated interest rates, the market opted for the age-old security of physical metal instead of digital volatility.

Capital migrated from cryptocurrencies to commodities.

9️⃣ The Collapse of Ratios (Bitcoin vs. Silver)
To understand the gravity of the situation, let's look at the "Ratios" (how many ounces of silver 1 Bitcoin buys):

The BTC/Silver ratio has plummeted -67% since May. In other words: Bitcoin's purchasing power, when measured in Silver, has collapsed.

Those who held Bitcoin became "poorer" in terms of real assets than those who held Silver. The market is repricing what the true store of value is now.

10 Conclusion: The Perfect Storm

We are experiencing a rare macroeconomic alignment:

1- Monetary policy forcing interest rates to zero (Trump).

2- Proven physical scarcity (premiums in London and Shanghai).

3- Distrust in public debt (fall in bonds).

The lesson for 2025 is harsh: paper and digital assets are losing out to real assets.