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I would expect that no *UV solution gets developed without a shadow program to defend against the capability
What's implied in the article I think is that because if you can't defend against it you must control areas from where they might be deployed... In this case Ukraine/Venezuela
There's levels of deterrence, perhaps nuclear deterrence doesnt prevent deniable sabotage but deniable counter-sabotage can at least exact an equal cost
That's where I'd deviate from the article, I don't think the US is provoking Russia and that Venezuala is a Russia problem... Ukraine is Europe trying to keep the US engaged, and Venezuela is China trying to diminish US presence in the Pacific
I think with the EU handing over $105bln (approx 60% of the total EU "federal" budget) to UA some 30h ago, they are no longer trying to keep the US engaged. That problem is solved for the US for the coming 6 months until Euros learn somewhere Summer 2026 how easy it is to make 105bln disappear.
Edit: thinking about what I just wrote, let's make it Spring 2026
The most entertaining outcome is the most likely
That money is secured against the seized Russian assets at the ECB, with the intent of keeping it as reparations... but that assumes Russia takes a deal that doesn't include getting that money back... and there's no leverage for that. This leaves Europe even having to escalate since they can't pay it back (or get rolled over)
Oh yea no doubt Europe is fucked no matter what, thats why I think there's some truth to this:
Austria, Hungary, Italy, and Poland are listed as countries the U.S. should “work more with…with the goal of pulling them away from the [European Union].”
It's been called a false leak, but I think it was more of a trial balloon/limited hangout.
It's been called a false leak, but I think it was more of a trial balloon/limited hangout
I've had pre-lawyer versions of docs leak in the past - sounds the same, though maybe in this case can replace lawyer with diplomat.
It's funny to target Italy though - their EU influence is growing real fast because they're filling the vacuum left by Brexit. Any improved relations with the US will strengthen them in that position, and I think that from an EU-wide perspective (not the perspective of the Germans and French per se) the best thing that can happen is Italy becoming more powerful, hopefully economically finally stepping out of the shadow of France and become the force that keeps the other 2 in check.
The nature of warfare is changing rapidly with technology. Most of the legacy US military apparatus is redundant. And that which isn't cannot be built without rare earths. China is ahead of the new technology and supply chains essential to modern warfare. As for AI- good luck with that as the US does not have enough electricity generation to power the data centres projected. China in contrast has a projected surplus equal to the entire worlds projected AI electricity power demand by 2030.
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From the linked article:
I cannot imagine that an institution like the US DOD has decayed to the point where they don't understand that deterrence isn't a good defense against sabotage. Thus I would expect that no
*UVsolution gets developed without a shadow program to defend against the capability.If I am wrong about that... then the cognitive decline is real and those AIs better get real smart real soon.