0 sats \ 2 replies \ @IHL 13 Feb 2023 \ on: The one thing that makes me incredibly bearish w/ Bitcoin bitcoin
I get what you are saying. I think it just means it'll take a lot longer than some people project. For example, I'm not onboard with $1,000,000 by 2030 a la Cathie Wood at ARK.
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11 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 13 Feb 2023
Hard to say. It is likely to be choppy all decade as we battle bouts of inflation and disinflation and central banks over correct to both. I think it is quite feasible we hit 1M by 2030 but unlikely we stay there. To stay at 1M or above we would need "crypto" to be pretty much dead, or at least relegated to a very small niche asset class, normies to have lost faith in central banks to fix the problem and for governments to at least not be hostile to bitcoin.
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1 sat \ 0 replies \ @IHL 13 Feb 2023
I definitely think it is possible but if it averaged 250k over the course of the year 2030 I wouldn't be surprised. I guess I'm just making sure I'm not in a position where any of my plans depend on a more bullish scenario.
My projections have literally zero impact on my stacking anyway. I just dollar cost average every single day and then buy some non-kyc sats a couple times a month.
As long as cRypTo is still going through hype cycles I will continue to expect 75%+ drawdowns in the BTC price. If those pump cycles stop then I'll start to get more near term bullish.
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