Yes most activity will migrate to lightning and other layer 2s, eventually base layer will be for large transactions only. I am thinking about people who currently need base layer for purposes of remittances or international settlement more than myself who is just using once per week to send sats to hardware wallet. 

grayruby

bitcoin

Onchain Fees

Even without JPEGS, you will have to pay high fees in the future, if Bitcoin becomes a global settlement layer. To move a few million sats, might better to start using lightning these days. I hope more exchanges will be forced now to integrate LN deposits/withdraws. Was the same with Segwit in the past, most just started reacting when fees where skyrocketing and customers moved to other exchanges with Segwit support.