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67 sats \ 4 replies \ @Undisciplined 17 Dec \ parent \ on: prediction markets aren't just gambling oracle
Compared to what, though?
The odds will tend to be close to what traditional books have but prediction markets have unilateral exit. It seems like that greatly reduces downside risks for gamblers.
It does seem a superior way to gamble than with bookies, though I suppose bookies do have some sort of liquidity / market-making function.
I think my skepticism towards prediction markets is more towards the idea that you can have a functioning prediction market for every event under the sun. Some niche markets I think just won't have enough volume to generate a good prediction.
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you can have a functioning prediction market for every event under the sun.
Is that a strawman or do people really expect that?
I wonder if they can’t absorb more of the financial sector than we’re anticipating, though. Most people don’t make investments for the purpose of actually owning the instruments they’re buying. They just want exposure to the asset growth. There might be less friction-y ways to do some of that stuff on a prediction market.
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I guess it's a bit of a straw man but a lot of the people supporting prediction markets don't often make those qualifications or state where they think the predictive utility ends
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That seems fair. It’s a pretty new thing so we probably need to FAFO for a bit to separate the wheat from the chaff.
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