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0 sats \ 2 replies \ @unboiled 17 Dec \ on: BLS Reality Check: Unemployment by Race (Seasonally Adjusted) Politics_And_Law
No October numbers?
Also, how likely is it that the newer numbers will be revised significantly?
October numbers are missing due to the federal government shutdown, noted in the chart title. BLS couldn’t collect the data.
As for revisions: BLS does revise monthly employment data, but unemployment rates by race are typically stable in revisions. The seasonal adjustment factors can shift slightly, but a 6.4% → 8.3% change is far too large to be explained by statistical revision. That’s a real 1.9 percentage point increase.
For comparison, the 2008 financial crisis saw Black unemployment rise about 5 percentage points over 18 months. A 1.9pp increase in one year is significant and won’t be revised away.