Crude is embedded in a mature bear market. Positioning is heavy on the short side, conviction is high, and the tape feels dampened. But beneath that calm there is an unstable layer of geopolitical risk that could detonate instantly. It would only take one credible headline to flip the structure of the market.

The true shock triggers are well known in the energy space. A serious escalation in the Red Sea or Bab-el-Mandeb would immediately disrupt shipping flows. A genuine threat to the Strait of Hormuz not mere rhetoric would be enough to panic physical traders. Targeted tanker seizures tied to sanctions on Iran or Venezuela could tighten supply lines virtually overnight. Any direct hit on Russian oil infrastructure in the context of the Ukraine war would be disruptive by definition. And a surprise OPEC+ move skewed toward production cuts while the market is leaning short would completely change the forward curve...