A little while ago I had the idea to mark the halvenings and bitcoin halvening cycle elliot wave, something that is very obvious to anyone looking at the pattern.
Here's my scratchings on cryptowat.ch chart of Kraken's price record:
Notice the "bow tie" shape in red that I have repeated in white across the following two cycles up until now.
Notice also how my projected forward lines, which I made 3 slightly different ones, of them, one of them seems to be charting the trajectory.
I base the lines on the halvenings and the old top to following bottom of the following bear, and then draw the top to bottom and bottom to top, making a bow-tie type shape.
I think this pattern is predictive, because it is based on the sawtooth shaped supply change rate, which you can generate by taking the standard stair-step path of emission rates, and then derive this sawtooth pattern by drawing the momentary change of each block's contribution to the total supply as a percentage. The halvening causes a sudden downward spike, and then it forms a sigma curve upwards, dwelling in the middle and then moving up sharply as it gets to the next halvening where the stair step drops at halvening.
The amount of time between the halvening's sudden collapse in supply increase rate and tops and bottoms seems to be quite consistent. The circulal price curve chart that is quite famous also shows that this varies, but it varies according to when the halvenings occur. I have marked the halvenings as vertical white lines in the chart there.
If you account for this jagged supply rate change over time, the bitcoin price is actually just following almost perfectly the supply rate increase of especially USD. And you can also be very confident about, roughly, what 6 month period the tops and bottoms appear relative to the halvenings.
The first cycle, 2014-2018, sees a 21% level of the from the peak of 1198 to the bottom of 252. The current path seems to be indicating a repeat of roughly this same amount of top to bottom, which is in contrast to the 2018 to 2022 cycle, which saw a drop to 15.8% of the level of the previous high.
The influence of Ethereum is very likely part of hammering off the normal blow-off top, and if you look at Ethereum's chart, you can see that a lot of money went to ethereum, the "flippening" nonsense about a change in dominance of market cap saw a big rise in ETHs share, which took a chunk out of Bitcoin's normal 79% difference between top and bottom, a ratio that is likely very closely related to the sawtooth wave I am talking about with the halvening supply rate changes.
It is likely that Ethereum and it's endless parade of pumps for its new features (and the near competitors Solana, Avalanche, Cardano, et al), also put a floor on the price this time because when all the yield farming collapsed last year, a large amount of that moved into Bitcoin.
But aside from the halvenings, the USD inflation (supply increase) rate and the fads of the mother of all shitcoins, it is clear that by april 100% we will be clear of the possibility of a further lower low in Bitcoin price, and by the halvening in around may 2024, the price will be in the vicinity of 150k, and by the point of the next likely peak, around september 2025, the bitcoin price will be somewhere between 240k and 1.1mln.
I'm not saying that I can predict the future, but if those three influences on price are the primary drivers of the long term price action that's where it's going.