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“I think we’re going to see $100 [billion]–$150 billion of refunds, which could be between $1,000, $2,000 per household,” Bessent told an NBC affiliate station reporter while in Pennsylvania on Wednesday.
“The bill was passed in July, working Americans didn’t change their withholding, so they’re going to be getting very large refunds in the first quarter” of next year, the secretary stated.
Earlier in the week, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett also projected optimism in remarks to CNBC that a typical person with no tax on tips or overtime, which was included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, will see tax cuts of of $1,600 to $2,000 next year.
“A lot of that will come as tax refunds at the beginning of the year,” Hassett said.
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The number keeps bouncing around. First it was $2,000, last night it was $1,000. There was also talk about the amount being income-based so it would phase out for higher AGIs. In addition, now there's talk it's a withholding benefit. Well that's not really a refund. That's more cash in your pocket at paycheck time, but your taxes still remain the same at the end of the year. You just get less of a refund or owe more come next April after the withholding adjustment. Sleight of hand there.
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