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72 sats \ 8 replies \ @grayruby 10 Dec \ on: New Polymarket Account Places $40k on NO Fed Rate Change Today econ
If they have inside info why did they bet so little?
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457 sats \ 7 replies \ @Undisciplined 10 Dec
Maybe it’s their liquidity constraint
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116 sats \ 6 replies \ @grayruby 10 Dec
Could be. Anyways I don't buy it. Fed doesn't like to surprise the market and they have signaled rate cut. I bought 35k shares of 25% cut on predyx today.
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40 sats \ 5 replies \ @Undisciplined 10 Dec
That gave me a nice arb opportunity (or "arbportunity", if you will), which is the other likely possibility. They may have done it to cover some other financial risk they were exposed to.
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69 sats \ 3 replies \ @grayruby 10 Dec
I think arb or just a total degen.
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40 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined 10 Dec
Maybe they just fat-thumbed No, while trying to place a Yes wager.
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69 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 10 Dec
Could be. I accidentally sell shares on predyx PWA all the time. They need to fix the fact that it defaults to sell when you have sold one outcome and go to the next outcome in the same market.
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40 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 10 Dec
Maybe they'll change it to default back to buy once they get to where we aren't making sats on average.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 10 Dec
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