Generally like Lyn, but she's seeming a little narrative trapped and maybe has a touch of TDS, and pretty much ignoring everything that's happened (and signaled) over the year.
Seems to be true of most macro commentary accounts with a large following... Grug brains just wants to hear "printer go brrr" so they eat this shit without question.
costs of capital are no longer declining ... no more lower-lows in interest rates
The neutral rate is dropping off a cliff, and Fed rates accordingly, and the long end is keeping up
gradual increase in the Fed’s balance sheet after a period of flatness
It hasn't been flat, its been shrinking relative to the size of the economy, it can increase nominally but still be shrinking relatively
inflation
This whole year has been disinflation
the economy is broadly weak
No evidence of, capex is up 15% YoY and usually an early indicator
stock prices up in their own currency
Yet PE is down 13% YoY
rolling over relative to gold
That's war footing in geopolitcs, not a dollar supply vs. liabilities story, if anything it's a de-leveraging
Gold isn't even up to it's pre-covid levels in stonk terms, and doesn't have PE or dividends that increased over that time.
Could go more into the differences between fiscal stimmies circa 2020-21 vs. what's unfolding today with SLR, de-regulation, tariff effect on forex, and literally everything else that effects monetary velocity
Printing is just half the picture, there needs to be dollar destruction to force the printing, and a lot of printing, LOTS of printing, can be offset with dollar destruction as we've been seeing.
Generally like Lyn, but she's seeming a little narrative trapped and maybe has a touch of TDS, and pretty much ignoring everything that's happened (and signaled) over the year.
Seems to be true of most macro commentary accounts with a large following... Grug brains just wants to hear "printer go brrr" so they eat this shit without question.
The neutral rate is dropping off a cliff, and Fed rates accordingly, and the long end is keeping up
It hasn't been flat, its been shrinking relative to the size of the economy, it can increase nominally but still be shrinking relatively
This whole year has been disinflation
No evidence of, capex is up 15% YoY and usually an early indicator
Yet PE is down 13% YoY
That's war footing in geopolitcs, not a dollar supply vs. liabilities story, if anything it's a de-leveraging
Gold isn't even up to it's pre-covid levels in stonk terms, and doesn't have PE or dividends that increased over that time.
Could go more into the differences between fiscal stimmies circa 2020-21 vs. what's unfolding today with SLR, de-regulation, tariff effect on forex, and literally everything else that effects monetary velocity
Printing is just half the picture, there needs to be dollar destruction to force the printing, and a lot of printing, LOTS of printing, can be offset with dollar destruction as we've been seeing.