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Mearsheimer predicted the current Ukraine-Russia war 10 years ago. Very few people in the US state department or European parliament subscribed to his thesis at the time. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4
The Munk debate from 2022 between Mearhsheimer (strucutural realist) and Michael McFaul (color revolution proponent/architect) is worth watching. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EhgWLmd7mCo