Graduation-rate comparisons to white or Asian students are completely irrelevant to the labor-market reality behind the 2025 pattern. The meaningful metrics here are per-capita and per-sector, not broad racial graduation averages. • Per capita, Black women earn more bachelor’s degrees than white men and are the most educated demographic within their racial group (NCES/Brookings). • Per sector, Black women are strongly represented and highly credentialed in the exact fields where the 2025 losses occurred — government, finance, transportation, and professional services (OPM/EEOC). • These sectors require degrees, certifications, and mid-career experience, and Black women hold those qualifications at above-average rates.

So education or skill levels cannot explain why Black women saw the sharpest 2025 losses while white women stayed stable and white men gained jobs. Graduation-rate comparisons have nothing to do with the timing, sectors, or scale of what happened.