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100 sats \ 24 replies \ @0xbitcoiner 25 Nov \ parent \ on: Ukraine agrees to full terms of US's proposed peace proposal Politics_And_Law
From what I've heard, and I might be missing something, all the bad stuff in this deal is bad for Ukraine, not for Europe. I don't get why Europe wouldn't back it if Ukraine is cool with it. Europe just can't keep funding this war forever, though. The end needs to be close.
The war ending is bad for Europe because can they defend Finland, the Baltic states and Poland without the US, while being busy securing Ukraine? I think no.
Not enough F35s and definitely not enough anti-drone platforms, since that's what they've been using F35s for. Potentially not enough nukes.
I think that there is some catch here. Zelensky cannot say no because he doesn't have the political capital. He made that clear. Trump and Putin want this. The only ones that can say no are the EU
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Update:
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So per private human translation, here's approx what Lavrov is saying (note this is just the narrative, not truth per se):
- Russia doesn't even know what the US media is talking about. They haven't officially received anything and had to find out from the media. US needs to use diplomatic channels and communicate what they're working on.
- EU failed to secure peace in Eastern Ukraine per the Minsk agreement and there's not going to be a new version of the same thing. Remember that Putin said the same in his interview with Carlson (#418324).
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Yes, Trump thinks that running mouth on Social Media is the channel of communication to agree everyone. EU allies wouldn't be happy at all for ignoring them, if it is. But Russia wants US to ignore any demands from EU and deal is done.
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Yes it is but it's again not liked and don't work everywhere. It didn't work well in India's case when he tried to impose himself as mediator for India vs Pakistan clashes. The public, government and media all treated him like a joker here.
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There's not much goodwill and trust towards the US in Europe either, which seems to have worked in the favor of EU politicians because public trust in the EC hasn't been as high as its now since before 2008. On the ground this feels as the result of fear more than the result of a job well done.
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How on earth was the EU supposed to ensure peace in eastern Ukraine? The EU is not a military organization or anything like that… Can you point to the actual points of either of the Minks agreements (2014 or 2015) where this or similar claim is stated?
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Ah, so sorry, I missed that note.
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No probs. It's always messy when being confronted with narratives like this, and I definitely don't trust some X account to give proper translation as they have an incentive to prop it up and get more interaction (tho neither should you trust a translation provided by some anon like me on SN). Nevertheless I thought it was worth sharing a second opinion of what he was talking about in the video.
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The war ending is bad for Europe because can they defend Finland, the Baltic states and Poland without the US, while being busy securing Ukraine? I think no.
I don't get what you're saying, can you break it down?
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Putin has been making war since 2008. If he "wins" in Ukraine where is the next war going to be?
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Trump has been making clear that because he is unhappy with the share of EU contributions that the US will not honor Article 5 if Russia invades.
Thus: the EU no longer has a US ally - NATO is politically dead. It has an aggressor on the east border, one that will, when this war ends without a Russian defeat, stretch from Northern Finland to Southern Ukraine.
That's the position the EU is now finding itself in. If they collaborate on this plan they are fucked, if they say no, they're fucked. Its getting fucked time in the EU.
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Prof John Mearsheimer, famous geopolitical theorist, has said time and again that Ukraine is going to lose the war of attrition and that Trump doesn't want it to take the blame for it. How to let Ukraine lose without being accused of abandoning them entirely?
- Propose a peace plan that the Russians will accept (improves US-Russia relations)
- Sell weapons to the EU so that they can supply them to Ukraine (the US never abandons its allies)
- Leave the final decision and long-term consequences to the EU (so the US can gracefully pivot its attention to China)
Art of the Deal baby!!
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What is that supposed to mean?
Mearsheimer predicted the current Ukraine-Russia war 10 years ago.
Very few people in the US state department or European parliament subscribed to his thesis at the time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4
The Munk debate from 2022 between Mearhsheimer (strucutural realist) and Michael McFaul (color revolution proponent/architect) is worth watching.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EhgWLmd7mCo
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It could happen, but I don't see things that way. I'm not buying that Putin is gonna invade other European countries, and if he does, it won't be now. By the time it goes down, Trump won't even be in the White House. Maybe I'm being naive, but that's just how I see this whole situation. The thing that actually worries me is the weapons lobby.
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This whole 'no allies' thing is super speculative. I reckon the US won't leave us hanging, even with Trump as prez.
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Selling weapons? they ain't giving nothing away. All the gear that might come from the US is paid for. That's not much of an incentive, is it?