Strong profits, billions in funding, and the AI craze are driving the indexes.
However, a phenomenon seen only twice in history is happening.
The challenge now is knowing where to position yourself!
1️⃣ Revenue Soars and Sustains the Rise
The S&P 500 saw revenue growth of +8.4% in the third quarter—the largest increase since 2022.
And it was broad-based: all 11 sectors represented on the stock exchange rose.
The rally is sustained by profit, not just optimism—and that saved the current perception.
2️⃣ More money is flowing in strong
In the last two months, equity funds in the US received $160 billion.
The most interesting thing: December, historically the month with the highest inflow of funds of the year, hasn't even shown its full potential yet.
3️⃣ Institutional investors are almost out of cash
The cash level among global managers has fallen to 3.7% — the lowest level in 15 years.
The big players are already positioned.
It's become a consensus again: cash is trash!
4️⃣ Risk appetite explodes
Trading in leveraged ETFs reached $26 billion — one of the largest in a decade.
The market not only buys back quickly when it falls, but it also doubles down.
5️⃣ S&P 3% from top with Fear & Greed at 14/100
While prices are nearing all-time highs, market sentiment remains frozen in "extreme fear."
The biggest distortion between price and sentiment in years.
We don't usually see a bubble in a scenario of such pessimism.
6️⃣ However, the performance is concentrated in a few.
Despite the strong results across the board, only 158 S&P stocks are beating the index this year—the third-lowest range since 1960.
Most assets are still far from the top.
The rally is real, but selective.
7️⃣ The foundation of the economy is falling behind
Unemployment among young college graduates (20-24 years old) has already reached 9.2%.
How much of this is influenced by AI remains a question.
The economy is growing, but it's not distributing wealth.
The asset rally doesn't reflect what many people are feeling.
8️⃣ And the core of employment is shrinking
Sectors outside of leisure, health, and education cut 200,000 jobs in 5 months.
The productive engine of the real economy is losing strength.
9️⃣ AI companies' credit ratings are starting to crack
Oracle's CDS, for example, has tripled since July.
CoreWeave's has soared to 699 points.
Investors are hedging against a potential disruption in the spending cycle without clearly defined returns.
1️⃣0️⃣ US debt continues to grow unchecked
$2.1 trillion was added in 2025 alone — an average of $6.5 billion per day.
And the agency created by Elon Musk that oversaw efficiency (DOGE) was deactivated.
The fiscal risk remains, but it has disappeared from the price, becoming a secondary concern.
1️⃣1️⃣ History shows that discomfort pays off.
When the VIX, a volatility index, moved from the 28-33 range, the S&P yielded +16% in the following 12 months.
Above that, +27%.
Current fear has a history of high returns in the long term.
1️⃣2️⃣ The cycle has turned — but not for everyone
Strong profits, tech leading the way, and capital flowing in.
However, credit is tight, employment is slowing, and many investors remain insecure.
A perfect environment for generating asymmetry.
1️⃣3️⃣ This isn't an easy bull market — it's a market of selection.
The rally is happening. But it requires filtering. It requires analysis. And it requires courage to step outside the average and seek the right side of the asymmetry.