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0 sats \ 2 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 18h \ parent \ on: The Bear Case for 2026 (FT, Robert Armstrong) econ
Ignoring the fat that USA cannot go to war or even sustain its high tech manufacturing (whats left of it) for at least the next decade at least without the rare earths China supplies.
Good luck with that.
Doesn't matter if the world still views dollars as being the best, most stable, currency to hold and use for trade.
The USA can export its paper, and its inflation, and pretty much win any war via printing the money. Doesn't have to be China; we can buy rare earths elsewhere with our fancy money printer!
I say that somewhat tongue-in-cheeck, because I know that such a war would destroy America. They might be strong for a while, with nothing but money printing to back itself up... and trust in the currency would break down eventually.
The only question I have is: Why isn't trust in the dollar already breaking down? (or rather, breaking down so slowly). Even Bitcoiners seem to like dollars more than Sats, when the music stops playing. It's weird.
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Well trump can see that others want to use other protocols than the petrodollar but he is using threats of tariffs and military force to prevent them choosing other MoE.
That's not a free market approach - that's a dictator bully - that's Trump.
Trump the insecure dictator bully trying to sustain the USA petrodollar empire by preventing others choosing other payment systems.
BTW print as much USD as you like China controls the refining of rare earths to such a high degree that USA cannot fight a war or manufacture most of the high tech products that it still can make without China supplying the rare earths essential to those products.
USA cannot buy refined rare earths anywhere else because nowhere else makes them in any significant quantity and will not for at least a decade.
China is already refusing to supply any rare earths to any potentially military end use.
USA military is effectively crippled already.
Great own goal bully Trump!
China has won the trade war- US military industrial combine is defeated.
Central banks are buying gold not USTs- they are in no rush as a gradual transition is preferable to a sudden collapse.
Iran and Russia already trade on the Chinese payment rails CIPS and mBridge and Saudis and others are joining them over the next few years. Steady as she goes- US empire is dying and Trump knows it.
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