Oracle lost $374 billion in market value after announcing a $300 billion mega-deal with OpenAI.
Yes, you read that right: announcing a billion-dollar deal destroyed value.
The market understood what many analysts refuse to admit: Oracle took a gigantic risk by financing—via debt—a massive data center expansion to serve ONE single client.
🚨 The numbers are alarming:
- Net debt already at 2.5x EBITDA
- Expected to double by 2030
- Negative cash flow for the next 5 years
- OpenAI is expected to account for the MAJORITY of revenues starting in 2027
This dependence on a single client has increased the cost of debt protection (CDS) and triggered alarms on Wall Street.
But there's something even more revealing: Announcements involving OpenAI have stopped boosting stocks.
Oracle, Amazon, and Broadcom FELL after their deals. Even Nvidia remained practically stable.
We are witnessing in real time what happens when the AI narrative meets the reality of balance sheets.
Oracle bet everything on a technological race whose return is still uncertain, while compromising its cash flow and multiplying its debt.
This may not be an isolated case.
How many other companies are making similar bets, leveraged to the hilt, just to avoid being left out of the "AI revolution"? 🤔
History teaches us: when everyone runs in the same direction, it's time to question whether the path really leads anywhere.