Scott Aaronson writes the blog Shtetl-Optimized about quantum computing (and has been doing so for twenty years). I usually find him a reasonable voice in QC - not fully a booster, despite earning his bread from the quantum computing world.
His most recent update included the following statement:
given the current staggering rate of hardware progress, I now think it’s a live possibility that we’ll have a fault-tolerant quantum computer running Shor’s algorithm before the next US presidential election.
Now a QC running Shor's algorithm doesn't necessarily mean breaking public key cryptography, it does seem like progress. Certainly, I hadn't noticed Aaronson making such optimistic prognostications before.
In looking for more detail, I found this response from Aaronson to a comment on the post:
Which is a nice clarification. Running Shot's algorithm to factor the prime number 15 does not spell the imminent demise of public key cryptography, but as Aaronson says, the path forward appears to have few obstacles.