The market is trying to recover after the fall, but the picture remains very challenging: oversupply is on the horizon with the IEA cutting demand for the sixth consecutive month.

US sanctions on Russia add a supply risk, but for now the biggest burden is the estimated record surplus for 2025.

For those trading oil, the message remains the same: high volatility, mixed drivers, and a market increasingly skeptical of the thesis of a tightening global balance sheet.