A mismatch between supply and demand is occurring.

A struggle between buyers and sellers is suppressing the price and preventing BTC from reaching even higher highs than those seen at the beginning of October.

And now, the sellers are winning.

In the last month, this demand has dried up.

To give you an idea of ​​the scale:

Long-Term Bitcoin Holders have sold 2.4 MILLION BTC since June.

The largest distribution in the asset's history.

Do you know what should have happened?

Bitcoin plummeting.

Crashes of -50%, -80% like in 2018 and 2022.

LTH selling in this way ALWAYS marked the top of a cycle and the beginning of a bear market.

But here's the plot twist:

Bitcoin went up.

Why?

Institutional buying.

ETFs, treasury companies, sovereign wealth funds, and pension funds not only absorbed this supply but also sent the price to new highs.

Do you understand the INSANITY of this?

It's like a ship navigating a brutal storm perfectly, without even rocking.

And this setup that took us to the ATH at the beginning of October is the same one that took us below $100k weeks later.

Why?

Demand dried up.

Treasury companies are buying at the lowest volume in history. A 90% drop since the buying frenzy of November 2024.

ETFs are buying practically NOTHING.

Institutions even SOLD bitcoins.

Meanwhile, LTHs continued selling.

And then the price bled.

What happens from here on out will dictate whether we've seen the bottom or not.

For BTC to rise, either LTHs ease off the selling, or institutions start buying strongly again.

The good news is that we are now seeing the beginning of a return in demand, with players having entered during these dips below $100k. (Note the chart.)

But it's still far from being strong demand.

That's why we've seen this boring, sideways market, because we're literally seeing a fight between LTHs and institutions.

And meanwhile, retail investors are on the sidelines, watching, waiting.

While millions of bitcoins change hands – from LTHs to institutions.

We know that the supply of bitcoins is fixed, limited.

But the supply of fiat currency that can be used to buy these bitcoins is not.

And nobody has better access to credit than companies and governments.

And it is precisely these that are buying.

It's not about "if" the sale of LTHs will calm down.

It's about "when".

And when that happens, we already know what bitcoin is capable of.

Not to mention the unique macro backdrop we are seeing.

→ End of QT. → End of the US government shutdown. → Fed talking about the possibility of resuming asset purchases soon (QE). → Trump nominates new Fed chair in May 2026. → Stimulus checks of $2,000 for each American (in USD or as tax benefits).

The scenario is taking shape, and everyone knows what they're doing.

Betting against Bitcoin in the short term may be profitable, but in the long term it's insanity.