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Ah, yes, the good old bitcoin treasury companies are back! (NO, LOLZ; they're dying...) #984224
It was the move to make for much of the year: Sell shares or borrow money, then plow the cash into bitcoin, ether and other cryptocurrencies. Investors bid up shares of these “crypto-treasury” companies, seeing them as a way to turbocharge wagers on the volatile crypto market.

What could possibly go wrong?

Weeeeeelll, pretty much everything. Retail stopped buying overvalued shares, insiders sold like crazy, the mNAV -- from which all the magic stems -- collapsed, the mania ended.
Chanos was right:
At least one big-name investor is adjusting his portfolio after the tumble of these shares. Jim Chanos, who closed his hedge funds in 2023 but still trades his own money and advises clients, had been shorting Strategy and buying bitcoin, arguing that it made little sense for investors to pay up for Saylor’s company when they can buy bitcoin on their own. On Friday, he told clients it was time to unwind that trade.
Saylor, for his part, has remained characteristically bullish, taking to social media to declare that bitcoin is on sale. Skeptics have been anticipating the pullback, given that crypto treasuries often trade at a premium to the underlying value of the tokens they hold.
and, my publicly stated belief is that the show is over. We will not be talking about treasury companies in a year or so; they won't be a thing. (Strategy will, unfortunately, survive, but the premature "Bitcoinization of Finance" is no more.)
companies facing losses will find it challenging to sell new shares to buy more cryptocurrencies, analysts say, potentially putting pressure on crypto prices while raising questions about the business models of these companies. ...

GAME. OVER.

totally.

Archive was misbehaving, so yous gotta trust me on this one.
Presumably, there will be benefits for companies saving in bitcoin, though, other things equal.
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Saving ≠ financially engineer BTC acquisitions
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I get it, but there may be a persistent mNav > 1 for a while just because having a bitcoin treasury signals not being retarded.
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Not necessarily, it can also signal trend following and greed for easy gains, which is usually not a good sign for a sustainable business
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For now, yes. I guess I'm imagining a transition period between fiat standard and bitcoin standard, when there's a penalty for being late to the program.
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121 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 10h
Let's face it. Shitcoin treasury companies were always going to be the top signal. When companies started buying eth and solana for their treasuries it was all over.
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33 sats \ 2 replies \ @Taj 11h
I was thinking about your legacy media breakdowns, and I saw this piece covered by Pierre Rochard yesterday on X.
So being a day old, is it old news already 😴
Here's the link... I tried to 'archive.fo' it, but it just stays on loading screen, maybe you can fix it.
Seems very similar to this story, unless it is this story and I've misread.
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I think it is that exact story
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Taj 10h
I was trying to sort the archive.is thing and was going to send to you. You pre-empted me by 20 minutes 🙏
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The structure is very similar to all those OHM treasury coins where the stock/token (here MSTR or OHM) isn't actually redeemable for all the underlying stuff in the treasury. If you hold the equity in MSTR or OHM, you're just getting diluted without any ability to redeem for the underlying Bitcoin. It helps that MSTR also sells its software platform, but I would rather hold Bitcoin (as would they it seems)
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They will rebound the ones that have solid balance sheets and don’t become forced sellers will win
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