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The US Treasury has $1 TRILLION in cash waiting to be spent, and the RRP has reached zero.
Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity just pointed out the most important liquidity shift since 2020.
Let me explain why this is HUGE for Bitcoin:
What happened in the last 3 years?
The Fed ran one of the largest liquidity drain programs in history:
→ Quantitative Tightening selling ~$95 billion/month in bonds → Balance sheet fell from $9 trillion to $6.59 trillion → Reverse Repo absorbing up to $2.5 trillion from the system → Result: liquidity being SUCKED from the economy
But now?
All of this is TURNING AROUND.
Timmer's three points:
1️⃣ QT STOPS ON DECEMBER 1st
After 3 years of draining liquidity, the Fed confirmed: QT ends in 3 weeks. 1️⃣ The pressure of $95 billion/month in sold bonds? Disappear.
That alone changes everything.
2️⃣ REVERSE REPO ZEROED OUT
The “parking lot” where banks left trillions sitting idle at the Fed?
It fell from $2.5 trillion to just $52 billion.
Practically ZERO.
That money has already returned to the financial system. And there's nowhere else for it to drain.
3️⃣ TREASURY GENERAL ACCOUNT AT $1 TRILLION
Here's the INSANE part:
The US Treasury has $1 trillion in cash (TGA) – WAY above normal.
When the government spends this money (and it WILL spend it), it goes directly to bank accounts in the real economy.
Timmer calls this a “robust fiscal QE cache”.
Why?
Because when the TGA goes down, bank reserves GO UP.
The pressure of $95 billion/month in sold bonds? Disappear.
That alone changes everything. ... It's a liquidity injection from the fiscal side – without the Fed needing to announce "QE4".
It's silent QE. But the effect is REAL.
Think about the dynamics:
UP TO NOW (2022-2025):
  • QT draining $95 billion/month
  • RRP absorbing trillions
  • System thirsty for liquidity
  • Pressure on risky assets
FROM NOW ON (Dec 2025):
  • QT stops completely
  • RRP zeroed (no longer absorbs)
  • TGA at $1 trillion ready to spend
  • From draining to INJECTION
It's a structural inflection point of trillions of dollars.
And the timing?
It's EXACTLY now.
Not only do we have the end of QT, but Trump is appointing a new Fed Chair next year.
And given how much Trump complains about Powell keeping interest rates "high," we know what kind of person he's going to nominate...
Why does Bitcoin matter here?
Bitcoin is not just about "BTC supply and demand."
Bitcoin is a globally liquid asset.
Every time the financial system receives more dollars, some of those dollars seek returns.
And Bitcoin is one of the best destinations.
Look at the history:
📊 2020-2021: Fed injects ~$4 trillion (QE) Bitcoin: $10k → $69k
📊 2022: Fed raises interest rates and drains liquidity (QT) Bitcoin: $69k → $15k
📊 2023-2025: Fed somewhat balances liquidity with other tools while continuing QT Bitcoin: $15k → $126k
This shows that even in a low-liquidity environment, Bitcoin has already managed to generate incredible returns.
Now that the Fed is supposed to start injecting liquidity FOR REAL…
What will happen to Bitcoin?
THE REALITY?
  • Fed cut interest rates ✅
  • Fed will STOP draining liquidity ✅
  • Treasury has $1 trillion to inject into the economy ✅
  • New Fed chair in 2026 🔜
This is LOOSENING.
And it validates the central thesis of #Bitcoin:
Governments cannot maintain fiscal discipline.
The dollar continues to lose purchasing power structurally.
Scarce assets ($21M BTC) are the protection.
It's an ALIGNMENT of factors that we haven't seen in years.
Multiplier effect:
Bitcoin is a "high beta" asset – it amplifies liquidity movements.
Why?
→ Smaller market cap than gold and stocks (more volatile) → 24/7/365 (reacts instantly) → Global/borderless (captures global liquidity) → Value store narrative
High beta works both ways. But in liquidity expansion? It's IN FAVOR of Bitcoin.
The strategy is clear:
Increased liquidity is a matter of "when," not "if."
And when it happens, we already know...
Bitcoin historically EXPLODES in liquidity expansion environments.
Thanks for the summary
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