Amid the largest US military siege since 1962, the Venezuelan dictator signals he may accept a negotiated solution.
But behind the scenes, much more is revealed: internal pressures, Russian interference, and Trump's unexpected retreat.
- Maduro doesn't rule out leaving — but imposes conditions
According to The Atlantic, he would agree to a "managed exile" if Trump grants amnesty, suspends the rewards for his capture, and facilitates his safe escape.
It's the regime itself trying to avoid a forced collapse.
- “Everything is on the table with Maduro,” said a source with access to both sides.
If the pressure is great—but there are concessions—the regime itself is willing to negotiate a way out.
But time is running out.
- This is not the first attempt.
Trump had sent Richard Grenell to negotiate an agreement with Maduro.
The plan included:
• Access to Venezuelan oil and minerals
• Cooperation against cartels
• Repatriation of illegal immigrants
• Release of American hostages
- But the process was buried by Marco Rubio.
Now Secretary of State, Rubio pushed for an aggressive shift, labeling Venezuela a "narco-terrorist state" and ending talks with Chavismo.
The government then aimed for regime change by force.
- The military escalation began soon after.
The US launched attacks against vessels linked to cartels in the Caribbean and the Pacific. Following this came the largest American mobilization in the region since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962:
• Aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford
• Nuclear submarine
• ~10,000 troops
• Drones and fighter jets
- Feeling the noose closing in, Maduro appealed to allies for help.
According to the Washington Post, he sent letters to Putin and Xi Jinping requesting expanded military cooperation.
He also contacted Iran.
The idea: to form a geopolitical shield against a possible American intervention.
- Moscow responded quickly.
Russia signaled public support:
• Repair and upgrade of Sukhoi fighter jets
• Shipment of new missiles (including Oreshnik)
• Expansion of technical and logistical assistance
• Justification: legitimate bilateral cooperation
A kind of open Cold War.
- Russian involvement complicates the situation
With a confirmed military presence on Venezuelan territory, an American offensive becomes much riskier.
The expectation of a rapid transition, as Rubio wanted, is becoming more distant.
And Maduro is buying time.
- The CIA is also in the game.
Sources confirm that Trump authorized the agency to conduct lethal actions in Venezuela.
Officially, the targets are the cartels.
In practice, the focus is on increasing pressure on Maduro and testing his resistance.
- But with Russia on the radar, the situation may have turned into a trap.
If he attacks, Trump could further escalate the indirect confrontation with Moscow.
If he backs down, he strengthens Chavismo and loses political capital.
The window for a negotiated solution may have closed.
The crisis in Venezuela may seem local, but it has global implications: oil, China, Russia, Latin America, and political capital in the US. All of this can impact the market.
