i don't have an answer, but there's a critical difference between nostr/primal and ln/ark in that there's direct incentives for lightning even if ark exists. direct protocol incentives are fundamentally new - lightning has them, nostr doesn't.

the history of protocols without direct incentives is that they get coopted and centralized; the coopters extract all the goodwill of the protocol base, fork off and then abandon the protocol, leaving it in shambles.