Absolute historical record.
It happened yesterday, and 99% of people don't understand what this means for Bitcoin in the next 12 months.
It's essential for Bitcoin enthusiasts to understand this dynamic. Come with me and I'll break it all down.
Everything indicates that the American financial system is having a silent panic attack.
While you were reading the headlines about the Fed cutting interest rates yesterday, something MUCH more important was happening behind the scenes.
Banks borrowed $30 BILLION from the Fed in a facility that serves as a backstop tool. Paying 4.25% interest. Overnight.
Think about this for a second.
100% of the applications were accepted. All $30 billion.
That's desperation. Someone might be going bankrupt.
But calm down, because it gets MUCH better (or worse, depending on where you're positioned).
Mohamed El-Erian – one of the world's most respected economists, former CEO of PIMCO – posted something yesterday that made my blood run cold:
"Repo rates are trading above the Fed's target range for the first time outside of the month-end since 2019"
Do you know what happened in September 2019?
The American financial system nearly collapsed due to a lack of liquidity.
The Fed had to stop EVERYTHING and inject $100 billion a day into the system. For MONTHS.
And it may be happening AGAIN.
Only this time there's a plot twist that nobody expected.
Lorie Logan – president of the Dallas Fed and possibly the person who understands liquidity best within the Federal Reserve – made a public comment yesterday that is absolutely NUCLEAR:
"If the recent increase in repo rates isn't temporary, the Fed WOULD NEED to start buying assets."
Read that again.
"WOULD NEED to start buying assets."
Do you know what that means?
QE. Quantitative Easing.
The printer is turning on AGAIN.
And it didn't say "maybe" or "we could consider." It said "WOULD NEED TO."
That's the Fed's top liquidity authority preparing the market for what's coming.
So what happens now?
I believe there are 3 possible scenarios. And the next few days/weeks will determine which one is most likely to happen.
Scenario 1: "It was just month-end."
Repo rates return to normal next week.
SRF usage drops to <$10 billion. Everyone breathes a sigh of relief.
Fed maintains the plan: QT ends on December 1st. All is calm.
Scenario 1: "Controlled QE"
In this scenario, Bitcoin continues to consolidate over the next few months as it has been doing, until QE begins or is announced – perhaps next year?
Scenario 2: "Controlled QE"
Fees remain high.
$15-25 billion in repos for two weeks. It's not an acute crisis, but the stress persists.
In mid-November, the Fed makes an announcement:
"We are ending QT immediately to ensure the proper functioning of the markets."
December: QE begins. Small at first. $20-30 billion/month.
Then it accelerates. And then the magic happens.
November would be BRVTAL for Bitcoin. Extreme volatility. It could easily fall below $100k when the market realizes that the stress is not temporary.
There will be panic.
"Bitcoin is dead." "Bull market is over."
The usual headlines.
And while retail investors sell in fear, institutional investors will accumulate like CRAZY.
Because they know what's coming. If the Fed announces QE in mid-December, Bitcoin could experience one of the most violent pumps we've ever seen.
New all-time high in WEEKS.
And it could very well hit $150k+ next year and catch up with gold, which has been outperforming BTC.
Why?
Because the narrative will be NUCLEAR:
"The Fed broke the system AGAIN and had to turn on the printing press."
21 million vs. infinite BRRR.
It's the strongest narrative that exists for Bitcoin.
Scenario 3: "Acute Crisis"
Something breaks in the next few weeks.
A primary dealer. A large hedge fund. A bank. The Treasury market freezes for hours.
The Fed calls an emergency meeting. Unlimited repos like in 2019. Massive QE. Possible emergency interest rate cut.
Bitcoin in this scenario?
Week 1: MASSACRE. $110k → $85k. Total panic. Cascading liquidations.
Week 2: The biggest V-shaped recovery in history.
Why so fast? Because when the Fed goes into "save the system" mode, EVERYTHING goes up.
March 2020 was exactly like that. Bitcoin fell to $3,800 in panic, and then doubled in price in weeks.
So here's the play:
The next few days will be CRITICAL.
If you want to follow in real time, these are the indicators:
SRF Daily Usage: If it stays above $25B = serious problem.
SOFR Rate: If it stays above 4.30% = Fed control is broken.
Statements from Fed officials: If multiples start talking about liquidity = preparing the market for QE.
VIX: If it rises too much (25-30+) = stress spreading to equity markets.
If rates return to normal, it was just the end of the month. Sigh of relief.
If they continue to rise? Game on.
And here's what retail investors will do:
See Bitcoin fall below $100k and SELL out of fear.
See Bitcoin make new highs and buy out of FOMO.
Completely miss the timing.
Knowing this, you can do things differently.
If Bitcoin falls in the coming weeks while repo fees remain high, this could literally be the buy of the decade.
Because it means QE is coming and the market hasn't priced it in yet.
All institutional investors will be buying at this level. Aggressively. And when the announcement comes, it's over.
It's the most bullish setup you'll ever see.
And the best part? This proves once and for all that the fiat system is BROKEN.
They can't normalize without breaking everything. They will always have to inject liquidity.
That's exactly why Bitcoin exists.
Logan doesn't issue public warnings for nothing. $30 billion in repo fees is not normal. The system is stressed.
And you're here early, able to position yourself before 99% realize it.
Wow!! Thanks for the information. repo and interbank lending is something I have a hard time understanding but it just shocks me why the banks keep putting themselves in this situation over and over again.