My suspicion is that they will cut 5 times before March, as much as they can, without a single .5 rate cut. At each juncture they'll pretend it's the last or that no more are likely, and they'll make up some reason to justify the cut that is local to the period, some recent data about inflation or jobs - blame AI redundancies or something.

But the truth is that private equity, including commercial real estate, of the subprime of 2026. They don't have the ammunition to curb and complete market panic, so they desperately want to avoid generating our contributing to one.

On the other side of this crisis banks will be adapting to the use of bitcoin as loan collateral, and businesses will be encouraged to purchase bitcoin in case they need credit rapidly at decent rates, for bridge loans in a future market correction. Some regional banks will have gone under by this point, and credit will freeze up because private equity has been playing fast and loose with the collateral system.