- Argentine stock ETF rises +20% in NY
- Dollar sinks almost 8%
- Bonds soar 10 points
The best-case scenario has happened, and the market is repricing political and economic risk in real time!
- Milei emerged from the legislative elections MUCH stronger than the market had anticipated.
She won over 40% of the votes for the Chamber of Deputies, turned the tide even in the Province of Buenos Aires (historically Peronist), and can now negotiate with centrist governors.
The balance of power has shifted—and with it, asset prices.
- Global investors are back buying Argentina—in dollars.
The ARGT, an ETF trading in New York with Argentine stocks, is up nearly 20% on the day.
It's a rally with heavy foreign inflows, anticipating the institutional unlocking.
- Argentine debt is being repriced.
With confidence in what lies ahead, bonds maturing in 2030—used as a benchmark for sovereign risk—rose 10 points in dollar terms.
Longer-term bonds began to follow suit.
This isn't short-term excitement: it's a shift in risk perception.
- The "crypto dollar" collapses.
The USDC/ARS exchange rate on platforms drops almost 8%.
The domestic market stopped fleeing to the dollar and began betting on stability.
This is a clear sign that Milei has gained institutional traction.
- There is now a real chance of delivery.
The market projects approval of the 2026 budget, progress on labor and tax reforms, and the beginning of a cycle of institutional normalization.
If this happens, today's prices are still an entry point.
- Even with the rally, bonds remain at a high premium.
Argentine bonds still trade at a discount compared to countries like Egypt and Ecuador.
The 2035 bond would have to rise another 9 points just to tie with the riskiest emerging markets.
- US support has become a pillar of the economic landscape.
Washington has signaled technical and financial support—including the possibility of bond buybacks.
This extends Milei's political time and provides cover for unpopular measures, if necessary.
- Price logic has shifted from panic to anticipation.
For months, the market operated in fear of losing control.
The media consensus was that Milei would be beaten yesterday and lose his ability to implement the reform process.
Today, the reading is that he has a rare institutional window—and that the fiscal anchor can be implemented with broad support, both domestically and internationally.
- The country has emerged from zombie mode.
If it delivers on the basics of the agenda and maintains the support of its governors, Argentina will return to the emerging markets map.
Today's movement may be just the beginning.