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373 sats \ 4 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 25 Oct \ on: Are real estate prices getting insane, basically everywhere? econ
No, property prices in New Zealand and Australia and I hear the US as well are stagnant if not in decline...after decades of increasing more than inflation the price of debt has now bottomed out and property prices can be expected to be stagnant for some time now.
In your case joining the EU monetary union probably adds value to property as you are presumably gaining access to a larger scale economy and increased expectations of future economic performance compared to past performance.
Governments and monetary unions are major factors in determining the wealth of nations and people are apparently expecting/speculating upon the value of property in Bulgaria to be increased by EU monetary union.
Definitely seems to be the case in NZ, and I am not sure about the US and can imagine it very much depends on the specific local market, however as a whole in Australia we are off the races, again, at least for the next few months.
I have a conspiracy theory that after the US Govt bailed out the banks in the GFC, the resultant increase to the US money supply meant other country’s currencies were suddenly very competitive with the dollar, possibly explaining the exchange rates at the time. This would’ve been painful for American importers, I can only imagine how expensive NZ lamb must have gotten for instance. Anyway at this point the US would have asked their closest allies and trading partners if they could also kindly send expand their money supplies too, in order to get exchange rates back to their historical norms. For allies such as NZ and Australia, the only feasible way of doing this was to lend, lend, lend, in doing so creating money/debt and increasing their total money supplies.
I may be completely wrong but comparing the USD/AUD chart with the mean Australian house price between 2010-2020 is interesting.
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Yes NZ and other tributaries to the US military and monetary hegemony definitely follow the lead of the Fed.
It began really pumping early 2000s with Bush2s war on Iraq and massive loosening of housing lending discipline- pumping the middle classes wealth perception.
It has gone right back to 1990 since interest rates declined globally from 20%+ until Covid when they reached zero or even below zero.
The constant easing of monetary discipline combined with cheaper and cheaper mortgage finance inflated house prices- but from here on the price of fiat debt cannot go much lower and incomes are constrained- the rentseeking fiat debt slavery bankers/military industrial combine its extracting maximum tribute but the whole shebang is unravelling.
Thats my hapennyworth view on it.
You can only financialise, rentseek and debt farm up to a point and then it stops.
We are at that point or close to it.
We need to actually return at some point to producing things that other people want/need to buy to earn an honest crust- but the west has mostly forgotten that and needs a wake up call.
NZ grass fed lamb beef and dairy are the best value BTW- not that I'm biased ;)
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Yes you're right I remember those times living in Welly and the concept of property ownership and investment really spreading right up until I left in 2007, some of my friends were getting into it and it all sounded like Greek to me.
I am 100% biased but I believe overall NZ has the best lamb, beef, seafood and produce in the world. Aussie beef is right behind, but one thing they do have is multiple supermarkets selling rump cap for roasting at home, which is a damn shame because it's a delicious cut and absolutely piss easy to make, hopefully this changes in NZ soon.
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The Desalination Bubble (or: When the Pipes Run Dry)
For decades, the Anglo property desalination plants—New Zealand, Australia, the US—pumped out ever-saltier home prices, turning sandcastles into gold mines.
BTC white paper ? https://beyondturbulence.blogspot.com/p/bitcoin-white-paper-analysis-correcting.html?m=1
The formula was simple: cheap debt + scarcity panic = This shack is now a million-dollar starter home. Shanty town ? What’s that ? Off grid tiny home communities ?
But the debt (cash) feedstock just hit peak brine. The pumps are still running, but the output?
Stagnant. Murky.
The “market” is constraining flow and finally realizing that you can’t distill wealth from thin air.. forever...
The party’s over like the silver !
The hangover’s called affordability.
Meanwhile, over in Bulgaria, the pipes are suddenly gleaming. Why?
Because the EU monetary union just rolled up with surgical tools to do dead giant surgery like Oak Flats —Apache Stronghold!
"Under New Management"
That’s what the sign reads lol
A promise to plug the plant into a bigger grid. Investors are lining up, squinting at the blueprints, whispering: “Future EU water pressure? That’s gotta be worth… something."
The old local taps—leaky, rusty, but your taps are being recalibrated for Euro-scale flow!!!
The bet isn’t on what the property is, but what it might become once the Brussels-backed plumbing kicks into full gear ..
Moral of the story:
Your plants? Are they running on fumes and nostalgia? Surviving ? God help us, God save us from being angry and God please please please remove our fears, please!
Their plants? Thriving! God bless em and their property | rekationships, etc.
Speculation’s the new freshwater even if hauling buckets instead of building pipelines is the path to enlightenment…
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