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0 sats \ 8 replies \ @Undisciplined 24 Oct
I think we're going to see tons of guys tied to this, because that includes unwittingly attending a game.
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42 sats \ 7 replies \ @HardMoney OP 9h
I didn’t realize the poker cheating is a separate issue altogether from the game rigging like Terry rozier sucking on purpose to hit unders
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0 sats \ 6 replies \ @Undisciplined 8h
I'm very curious about how the leagues are going to adjust to this.
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42 sats \ 5 replies \ @HardMoney OP 8h
I wonder how society will deal with insider trading on prediction markets
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0 sats \ 4 replies \ @Undisciplined 8h
It's good for prediction markets to have people use whatever information they have.
The problem would be feedback from the prediction market into outcomes. Assassinations are probably the most prominent and obvious example, while throwing dildos onto WNBA courts is on the lower end of seriousness.
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42 sats \ 3 replies \ @HardMoney OP 7h
The Nobel peace prize seems like someone had obvious insider information. I agree the reason prediction markets are so accurate is they are a mechanism that distills all information into a clear price signal (including material non-public)
Will be interesting to see what scandals comes out of it
Another example like dildos would be like this diplo 5k thing. He could purposely control the outcome and have some buddies bet beforehand. Could be tougher to find proof than being able to vet whether whoever threw a dildo or streaked at a game had a financial bet on it. https://polymarket.com/event/how-fast-will-diplo-run-5k
I think assasination markets won’t be as mainstreamed or have significant liquidity. Feels like regulators will push that offshore / onto dark web markets which I would think have less liquidity and would be an area asking for fbi investigators to track you down on if something like a Charlie Kirk bet happened
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10 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined 7h
Even if they don't specifically have assassination markets, anything like "Will Trump finish his 2nd term?" is inclusive of assassination, so an assassin could determine the outcome.
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42 sats \ 1 reply \ @HardMoney OP 7h
That’s a good point. Sometimes the fine print in these are restrictive or too subjective tho. Could read like “if he is impeached or resigns for health reasons”
Oracle could suspend the payout arguing criteria wasn’t met arguing a subjective take or just rugging it altogether and suspending the market
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 11h
Just the tip of the iceberg it seems.
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