Xi’s new doctrine is that the U.S. must adapt to a reality of Chinese power, these people said. In rare earths, they said, Xi is convinced that China holds an undisputed trump card that allows it to demand substantial U.S. concessions.

“Beijing believes it has maximum leverage and is not afraid of using it,” said Jimmy Goodrich, a China and technology expert at the University of California Institute of Global Conflict and Cooperation in San Diego.

Still, Xi risks a strategic backfire. His tactics provide ammunition to hawks in Washington pushing to break America’s economic dependency on China. U.S. allies in Europe and Asia, who rely on these minerals for their own industries, were also unsettled by Beijing’s heavy-handed display, reinforcing worries that China is becoming an increasingly unpredictable actor on the world stage. The U.S. and Australia this week announced plans to invest $3 billion in critical minerals aimed at eroding China’s hegemony.

A first sign of Xi’s playbook appeared in April, when Trump unleashed his global “Liberation Day” tariffs. China, already weathering Biden-era restrictions, was hit hard, with U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods eventually skyrocketing to 145%. And Beijing’s retaliation was swift: It cut off rare-earth magnets to American companies, temporarily forcing some U.S. automobile factories to shut down.