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70 sats \ 2 replies \ @Signal312 8h \ on: Why UK Homeowners Are Delusional About Property Values (FT, Hugo Cox) econ
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https://archive.is/WKNZN
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The Psychotic Topology of Home Value
This is not a market correction. It is a mass psychotic break with reality, where the metaprograms of human cognition have become the delusional architecture of the market itself.
· The Global ↔ Specific Psychosis: The Global mind clings to the axiom (remember, an axiom does not have to be proven, yes): "A home's value never falls."
It sees the soaring copper spire of the "British psyche." The Specific mind, however, is forced to count the cracks: a £50,000 price cut, a 22% decline since 2014, a 44% rise in overpriced listings. The psychosis is the inability to fold the comforting Global delusion into the brutal Specific data.
· The Match ↔ Mismatch Trap: Sellers are trapped in a Mismatch with time. They "anchor their sense of their home’s value from the last peak," creating a phantom asset that mismatches today's market. The buyer, however, performs a different Mismatch: they see a price cut not as a opportunity, but as a signal of desperation—"they thought you were really keen to sell." The market is a bridge between two conflicting delusions, and no one is crossing the threshold, ATM!
· The Certainty Collapse: For a decade, the market manifold was warped by a single, unwavering Certainty: inexorable appreciation. That Certainty has now folded into profound doubt and fear like a survival instinct or fight , flight, fear or fawn response. "Loss aversion" is the emotional scar tissue of this collapse—the pain of a perceived loss felt so acutely that it creates a 25-35% premium of self-deception, sabotaging the sale entirely. Don’t get me started on commercial real estate transformations or empty buildings and which private equity force of nature owns these monstrosities.
· The Procedure ↔ Options Failure: The old Procedure was simple: list high, wait, haggle. This procedure is now bankrupt. It offers no viable Options. The new, necessary Procedure is a "sharp, fast reset"—pricing correctly from the start to create a bidding war, the only "option" that leads to a sale or navigating the correct price with basic sales principles, 99 not 100.
But the psychotic mind would rather follow the old, failing ritual than unfold into a new methodology. Ask me how I know lol.
The Manifold's New Geometry:
The financial manifold has been recalibrated. The era of ever-cheaper debt that inflated this psychotic bubble is ending for the time being like the court cases of people over extending themselves in 2020 with zero interest rates. Can we have a conversation on the concept of zero in mathematics?
The topology is now flattening, and the Evidence-Based ground is shifting. The professional valuers, armed with comparable data, see the truth clearly: "It’s the easiest time to value a home since the credit crunch."
Yet, the homeowner, advised by "friends" and "unscrupulous agents," (not fiduciaries that are required by law to have the Other (not the self) best interests at heart) rejects this grounding evidence, with all the ingr dents, facts etc.
They choose the flattering fiction because the incentive structure of the entire system—where an agent risks little for an overvaluation but loses everything for honesty—rewards the delusion. Talk about syndicate and what about the 450 million dollar class action lawsuit against realtors?
The Way Out of the Asylum:
To escape, one must become a topological surgeon of one's own psychosis.
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Fold Global into Specific: Scour the property websites. Meticulously detail comparable sales. Replace the Global mantra ("values never fall") with the Specific, granite, lime and indomitable truth of price per square foot in said postcode with respect to family and schools, whew.
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Bridge the Mismatch: Price correctly the first time. This is the only way to bridge the perceptual gap between seller and buyer, creating the "confidence" that comes from multiple interested parties, or something like this but something valuable will have options .
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Unfold New Procedures: Put three agents on the spot. Challenge their estimates. This new, rigorous procedure is a path towards uncovering all the true market options.
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Accept the New Certainty: The certainty of perpetual growth is dead. The new certainty is volatility and negotiation. Lean into it. Set a walk-away price, 3% guaranteed if you back out and 20% down or whatever and inform your agent of a slightly higher one, building in a small, strategic discount for the buyer who "needs to feel they’ve got a good deal."
The market is no longer a place for fantasy. It is a ground for truth. The price cut is not a stigma; it is the admission ticket to reality that is finally, and ruthlessly, structurally sound.
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