Happy to be a Degenerate Gambling Addict/Not-All-Markets-Are-Efficient \ stacker news ~econ

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Happy to be a Degenerate Gambling Addict/Not-All-Markets-Are-Efficient beta.predyx.com/market/saylor-on-joe-rogan-in-2025-1748836147

1454 sats \ 7 comments \ @denlillaapan 16 Oct econ

Also, thank you for your cheap sats, eh?

Saw the unsubstantiated @BitcoinNews news about Saylor going on Joe Rogan (#994965) in the morning... threw 5k sats on it. Because that was about my level of confidence here: I have absolutely no idea, and these sort of stories are typically hopium ones that people LIKE to report.

Later in the day, when it had bounced around Twitter echo chamber a bit, the chances were up to 85%.

Kalshi, too, reported massive odds adjustment:

I took my profits and then some, because this might all just turn out to be noise. (Happy to give up the rest of my upside to those more confident/risk-averse than me.)

I thank all the @mega_dreamer/predyx participants for PUMPING MY BAGS!

...or, we all get to watch some high-level (low-level?) Bitcoin talk for normies for 3 hours.

P.S.: the 2 pieces of evidence we have are:

Saylor's plane ostensibly spotted in Austin
exec at Strategy tweeted at JR's producer.

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33 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer 17 Oct

Glad to hear from you after a long time @denlillaapan I had started missing all your StackerNews market's post. Hope all is well at your end.

84 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 16 Oct

Thanks for the tip. I had been buying these up early on because it seemed like such a high likelihood outcome.

65 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 16 Oct

I added some NO shares earlier and then almost immediately after saw this unsubstantiated report and figured best to close out the position even if it is bs.

501 sats \ 3 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 16 Oct

It is rare to find a truly free and open market where all participants are equally informed. In many cases there are some with inside information and thus, advantage. While free markets are an ideal to seek, it is not realistic to believe they can always be achieved. Betting markets can increase transparency as people with inside information are incentivized to participate. But what is required is some other hand than that of market forces and gambling - ie freedom of speech and sometimes, regulatory oversight! "People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices."

10 sats \ 2 replies \ @mega_dreamer 17 Oct

💯

BTW - thanks for joining Predyx :) Feel free to reach-out if you experience any issues. I'm sure you'll encounter few bug here and there, your feedback and prompt reporting will be very helpful.

51 sats \ 1 reply \ @Solomonsatoshi 17 Oct

Will do - so far so good - seems like an easy to use, fun and functional user interface so far.

10 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer 17 Oct

Awesome! looking forward. Happy to hear you like our user interface.