U.S. Government Shutdown Upcoming Pain Points \ stacker news ~Politics_And

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U.S. Government Shutdown Upcoming Pain Points

1124 sats \ 11 comments \ @Cje95 6h Politics_And_Law

We are now two weeks into the Government shutdown and as someone working in DC on The Hill I do not see an end in sight. At the moment Senate Democrats, who have dug in their heels, no longer have an off ramp that in previous shutdowns has been around.

One of the biggest talked about things the last couple of weeks is military pay. With a government shutdown what is truly being stopped are discretionary funding things nothing that is mandatory so your things like Social Security will continue to operate as is. "Funny" enough military pay is not something that is under the required funding and they fall under discretionary which is why there paychecks were in jeopardy. Given that there are military personal currently operating in active areas I have found the whole thing about them being sent off somewhere and not getting paid on time just absolutely wild.

Republicans were attempting to use this as a pain point and get Democrats to pass the funding for the CR so that the government could open and we could move on to the bigger and more important issue at hand funding the government for the next fiscal year. Instead as Democrats refused to back down and President Trump going this would be a terrible move to not pay service members and so he had the Pentagon figure it out. To be fair I am not entirely sold on the legality of moving around Congressionally appropriated money for DOD research and development spending but also.... its stupid to not pay them and honestly who is going to stand up in front of people and argue that the men and women who protect us should not be paid.

Because of this move this pain point started to disappear a couple of days ago when word got out that the Pentagon had a work around to address the paid issue. At least for this pay check. However, that is only the beginning of a number of new issues that are going to hit the US.

Likely the next domino to fall due to the funding lapse is going to be the Judiciary which has been burning through court fee balances and other funds not dependent on appropriations to keep operating at full capacity. Once this funding runs out the courts will shift to operating under the Anti-Deficiency Act which means support (courts and attorneys) will continue to work to support the exercise of Article III judicial power however each court and federal defenders office will have to determine the staffing resources required..... aka there will be more furloughs.

Today the Office of Management and Budget stated it was looking at various ways to pay Federal Law Enforcement officials due to the lapse in funding. I dont think it takes a rocket scientist here to say that if we stop paying the law enforcement officials holy crap are we begging for corruption within the ranks to take place.

The White House has also released plans if the shutdown continues to use the tariff revenue to keep the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children running as they are expected to burn through there emergency funding very soon. It is important to note that this is NOT SNAP. SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) is a different program that serves over 42 million Americans. They are the ones behind the EBT (Electronic Benefits Transfer) card that allow these families to feed themselves. SNAP does not expect to have funding for nutrition assistance if this shutdown goes into November.

Last but not least November first means the beginning of Obamacare enrollment and it is highly likely that people will get a hell of a sticker shock. While the insurance tax credits do not expire until December 31st when open enrollment starts people will be getting to look at what insurance would cost without these credits. Now mind you Obamacare was supposed to make insurance cheaper for everyone, something it failed at spectacularly, and now these tax credits are the only way to keep people insured.

Rather than fixing the actual issues with the system that is costing the US government hundreds of billions a year Congress has long just slapped tape onto it because touching Obamacare has been a no go for Democrats and something that even though it is awful for people voters in general tend to not realize you gotta go into it and change it to fix it. While I expect the tax credits to end up passing before the end of the year to keep them intact and thus keep the prices of insurance lower if the government isnt funded expect to see some crazy sticker shock.

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42 sats \ 7 replies \ @SimpleStacker 6h

I hope more and more people wake up to the fact that the degree of centralization we have in so much of the economy is not natural, and thus subject to much chaos and destabilization based on political winds. Decentralization and localism is the better way to go.

0 sats \ 6 replies \ @Cje95 OP 6h

Centralization for the economy in what way? The big tech companies or what? Cause if you look at the most valuable companies now and go back 10 years they were not big at all. Go back 20 and they were struggling ideas so the economy while it seems centralized the big players seem to cycle through over and over as innovation happens.

0 sats \ 5 replies \ @SimpleStacker 6h

Centralization primarily through federal agencies, I would say.

Secondarily through companies holding onto monopoly power, to the extent that this power is propped up by anticompetitive rules and practices

0 sats \ 4 replies \ @Cje95 OP 6h

Hmm.... I havent really though of it from that way before. I would say though there is good and bad centralization using the federal agencies. For instance with the FDA making sure that food being sold isnt poisoned or tainted like we dealt with in the late 1800s early 1900s. Same thing with the Department of Energy and the National Lab system which spurred everything from computers to nuclear power to understanding human genes etc.

0 sats \ 3 replies \ @SimpleStacker 6h

Yeah I'm very much a minimalist when it comes to governmental powers, but I do recognize the need for some areas of authority. Military, national defense, court system, policing are included in those. I don't buy the libertarian idea at all that peace can be kept with a system of private law enforcers. To me that's just tribal chieftains by another name.

After basic law & order / enforcement of life & property rights type stuff, I do see a positive role for setting standards (FDA, DOE, etc), though preferably not stringent quality standards except in the case of extreme danger, but rather informational standards so people can make informed choices.

Not sure what else I consider a legitimate government role. I'm not a huge fan of the externalities argument, since externalities can often be dealt with privately, and in any case it's not obvious that government intervention necessarily makes things better.

30 sats \ 2 replies \ @Cje95 OP 6h

One thing I think the DOE does a really good job on is the Basic Science research. More often than not basic science discoveries themselves have no value at all but what we learn from them unlock things that can then be commercialized like nuclear and early on computational discoveries.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @SimpleStacker 6h

I'm a bit more on the fence with regard to basic scientific research.

For one, it's more free ridable. Why should our tax money pay for it, why not let another society discover it? If it's truly "basic research", it shouldn't be easily excluded from use by others.

For another, I'm not convinced that government funded system is better than private patronage. Maybe there is empirical evidence out there about this, but I'm not sure.

I mean, I can definitely see the argument. But just not fully convinced. BTW, the examples you cited (nuclear and computational), would have fallen under the umbrella of national security, which I already cede is a legitimate role.

30 sats \ 0 replies \ @Cje95 OP 5h

If I run across it again I will be sure to send you the link but a huge issue with basic research vs private patronage is the sheer cost. I mean these first of their kind machines critical to projects easily cost $500 million plus. Its hard to gather that type of money from private patronage and then when you factor in salaries, supporting expenses, etc. its not something you see people or companies pull off it tends to be governments.

Nokia Bell Labs, commonly known as Bell Labs, was a private lab that did much more applied research though it also did basic and its researchers have been credited with the development of radio astronomy, the transistor, the laser, the photovoltaic cell, the charge-coupled device (CCD) among a ton of other things. However, the reason that this lab was so successful was because it was part of the Bell Systems corp and had an unlimited budget. Once Bell was broken up for being a monopoly in the 80s the lab has fallen off considerably.

On August 28, 2008, Alcatel-Lucent announced it was pulling out of basic science, material physics, and semiconductor research, and it will instead focus on more immediately marketable areas, including networking, high-speed electronics, wireless networks, nanotechnology and software.

Basic science just doesnt make money.... NIF (National Ignition Facility) is the only device that has achieved a net positive fusion reaction and more importantly a self-sustaining state called burning plasma. Fusion has the ability to the be the power source to address all our electricity needs. Something like that snowballs from just being an energy source to a national security thing. Same with CRISPER.... Now with the ability to edit DNA on one had new novel treatments to heal people but also ya have the negative side drawback with natural security as well.

The more and more I think about it a lot of basic research does end up playing a national security issue angle even if I didnt think it did at first lol

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10 sats \ 1 reply \ @BlokchainB 4h

Fantastic update!! Thanks

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Cje95 OP 4h

Gotta keep yall in the loop without getting in trouble for doing so lol

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @beyond_turbulence 5h

https://beyondturbulence.blogspot.com/p/the-incompetent-state-as-distortion-node.html?m=1

The American Dream: A Fixer-Upper From Planet Earth

Let's be real. The U.S. government isn't a well-oiled machine. Right now, it's a half-built house, and we're all living in the middle of a construction site, ACT III!

The "builders" — Congress and the President — have thrown down their tools and are having a screaming match in the front yard. Pure political theatre!

The plumbing's not hooked up, the wiring's exposed, and they're arguing about the brand of the doorbell. It's a fiat monstrosity.

And the garden? Forget it. It's a "Garden of Precedents," and it's being trampled like entitled bullies not letting sheep roam and discarding waste on the trails that allow private property owners to enforce sacred equilibrium via proxy.

Here’s the tour:

· The Blueprint is jn the Mud. The original architectural plans — you know, the Constitution, the whole "power of the purse" thing — are lying in a puddle.

Nobody's following them. Am I wrong?

Instead of fixing the foundation, they're debating the shade of white for the trim. We're not understanding the system; we're ignoring its core design.

· The Spinning, Ignored Weather Storm on the horizon where dark clouds are creating a rainbow and grey clouds are next to a light patch...

A storm is rolling in. You can see the clouds or courts, for food, for law.

The weather Bella are whistling and there are no more animals because they all got the hell out of dodge a long time ago.

Who is screaming "HURRICANE?”

Earthquake

The crew is betting it'll just be a little rain. This is Prediction turned on its head. We're not preparing for possibilities; we're praying they'll miss us.

· The Site Manager is on Mute.

The agency heads are like a site manager who’s given up. Their reports aren't about the structural freeze anymore. It's "Hey, we jerry-rigging power to one outlet!" while the whole house is about to go dark.

Lights fluttering . Lightning and Thunder

This is Information, corrupted. We're not getting facts, ingredients or elements; we're getting PR spin to disguise a totality of circumstances as collapse or nervous breakdown. Panic attacks, you know the drill.

· The Inspector Condemning the Fence. The criticism isn't even about the new addition anymore. The inspector is now pointing at the old, rotting fence — the courts, the safety nets — that's collapsing from sheer neglect. This is Critical Evaluation, something a HOA or POA has no interest in because the party line is shifting. We're not trying to improve the new build; we're watching the existing structure fail.

The bottom line: The polarities are flipped. Action is now inaction. Planning is now posturing. And the "legal workarounds" — like using tariff money — are the equivalent of stealing bricks from the neighbor's shed to patch a hole in our own roof. It might work for one rain shower, but the whole structure is unsound.

We're not building a dream house. We're watching a slow-motion demolition. And the scariest part? The builders are still arguing over who gets to hold the sledgehammer. The solution ? Think of your harvest and upcoming winter solstice to not let this fiat ritual grind one down.

Consequences of an "Unfinished House"

Permanent Distrust in the Builders. Even if the house gets finished, the occupants (the public) will never fully trust the architects and construction crew again. They've seen the crew abandon the project over a petty dispute, letting the family live with exposed wiring. Every future argument between the builders will be met with anxiety, a fear that they'll down tools and walk away again. This shatters the illusion of a competent, reliable governing class.
The "Makeshift Fix" Becomes Standard. The temporary, legally-dubious solutions—stealing bricks from the neighbor's shed, jerry-rigging the plumbing—don't just get removed when the real crew comes back. They become part of the house's permanent structure. The precedent is set: when the system breaks, copper pipes bursting or contaminating the water supply, the various Branch can unilaterally re-route resources without Congressional approval. The boundaries of power are blurred.
The Garden is Permanently Scarred. The "Garden of Precedents" doesn't recover. New, toxic plants have taken root and they are non native and spread like wildfire: the precedent that military pay requires a workaround, that judiciary funding is optional, that food programs are equated to being held political hostage. These weeds will choke out the old norms of compromise and regular order. The landscape of what is politically acceptable is forever altered.
The Focus Shifts from Building to Fortressing. The occupants, having lived through the chaos, stop thinking about adding a new sunroom (ambitious new legislation). Their entire energy goes into reinforcing the walls, boarding up the windows, and building a panic room. Policy becomes about crisis prevention and damage control, not progress or vision. The national mood shifts from aspiration to survival.

Thrive Thrice

What If Everything Turns "Back to Normal"?

This is the most dangerous part. If the shutdown ends and a funding bill passes, the political class will breathe a sigh of relief and declare the crisis over. The metaphor tells us this "normal" is a dangerous illusion.

· The Blueprint is Still in the Mud. The fundamental disagreement over the size and scope of the house (the role of government) hasn't been resolved. They've just agreed on a temporary paint color. The structural flaws remain, ready to cause the next topological tear or collapse because they’ll gorge themselves like their inbred masters.

· The Damage is Latent. Just because the power is back on doesn't mean the jerry-rigged wiring won't cause a burn in six months or ten years.

The courts have a hidden backlog that will cause justice to be delayed for years. But it’s not about justice, it’s about ritual.

Families on SNAP who faced uncertainty may never fully trust the safety net again, altering their spending and nutritional habits permanently. The "normal" is a facade over rot. What you call package foods that doesn’t compare to kimchi!

· The Builders Learning Wrong Lessons because they’re aloof and indifferent and counterfeit spirits, nay? There was a reason natives kept white wolves with blue eyes locked away in caves.

The primary lesson learned by the "builders" won't be "We must never do that again." It will be "The SHODY Brinkmanship Worked."

One side will believe that holding the government hostage is a viable strategy to extract concessions. The other will believe that withstanding the hostage crisis is a sign of strength. This incentivizes more shutdowns, not fewer.

The "normal" that returns is simply the calm between storms, with each storm growing more severe.

Or not !