Ask yourself what really is a "predictiin market"?
A scam. They literally use you and your greed. All these platforms are in fact data gathering selling it to other bigger pkayers.
This is how the society is manipulated into certain directions.
I recommend to read the book " Propaganda" by Ed. Bernays. It explain there in more details how to manipulate masses without even noticing they're manipulated.
Another aspect is: why you would waste your money in such gambling? Instead you should spend really carefully every of your sat.
But people are retarded and fall for this scam and their greed is pushing into it.
they're useful for hedging, in situations where you want financial exposure to some possibility that doesn't translate neatly into an existing market; and conversely, the information revealed by the bets is a signal to the public.
I'll skip the political examples, given how allergic you are to any acknowledgement of the power unfortunately still held by fiat governments, and give a slightly contrived although entirely plausible example. Prediction markets about weather phenomena are arguably a common denominator for insurers and individuals to hedge against various catastrophes, while the organizations that collect and analyse relevant data can price the odds with better accuracy, and by correcting unreasonable odds, get compensated for providing accurate information to the market.
I'm not a big fan of sports betting, as I think it's too liable to corrupt the sportsmanship of things like penalty shots if the conflicts of interest aren't carefully avoided.
You can live just fine without any prediction market.
the information revealed by the bets is a signal to the public.
That's how you manipulate the flock of sheeps that can't use their brains.
But what should I say more? People are too retarded in this fucked up world and will never learn the lesson.
You can live just fine without any prediction market.
acknowledged. the uses that I find interesting are the more speculative ones, as in, far-out ideas, not riskier gambles. things like the bets that are proposed by the Long Now Foundation; although they only do bets between two individuals, and some of these questions could be interesting to watch evolve with live betting as quarters, years, and generations roll by.
But what should I say more?
on a personal note, I think you just need to be aware of your audience. there are definitely people both in SN and outside of it who might be receptive to your level of maximalism, without just dismissing you reflexively as some toxic troll. you're probably never going to convince anyone to abandon e.g. sports betting with one meme about them being degenerate gamblers, although I think your higher-signal text posts do stand a chance of getting some people thinking.
I wrote above that I don't do any sports betting and consider it corruptible. I'm aware that there are even various cartels on the international level [thus my specific example of penalty kicks], it's just not directly relevant to me.
note that the Nobel Peace Prize and the Nobel Prize are separate entity.
The Norwegian Nobel Committee selects the recipients of the Nobel Peace Prize each year on behalf of Swedish industrialist Alfred Nobel's estate, based on instructions of Nobel's will.
it takes a looooong time for conservatively-managed funds to fade away. hyperbitcoinisation doesn't "remove fiat", the process is much more complicated and any fund manager with half a brain survives the process without the fund vanishing, although there might obviously be some bad reports.
Maybe it takes a long time, maybe not. If goes enters hyperinflation it's done. We don't need hyperbitcoinisation to remove fiat, they're already doing a great job.
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