Situation Instead of focusing my morning reading on the US government this morning I have been trying to digest and catch up on all of the wild news out of France that has emerged over the last 24-48 hours. I was aware and had posted about how France's Prime Minister had stepped down after 27 days on the job but was only made aware that he actually agreed to stay on until today in for the "stability of the country." - BBC

I had no clue that this guy had just appointed his cabinet aka ministers shortly before his resignation leading to people becoming confused on who was actually in charge. If I had to guess I would assume this is why he agreed to stay on for an additional 48 hours so that once he stepped down ministers were in place.

What I had missed and the more I read into it I am just amazed but that is who is behind this collapse/dumping fuel on the fire. It is his own people.... Former Prime Ministers who have worked for him have come out one after the other criticizing him and the decisions he has continued to make time and time again. Not to mention the criticism is continuing to escalate with the Prime Minister for the first 3 years of his Presidency, Edouard Philippe, has now called for him to step down given that Presidential election are just 18 months away and how many government collapses have occurred since his call for snap Parliamentary election in June 2024.

The heart of France's issue is one that is either A) hitting most countries right now or B) is going to hit them within the next 10ish years....

Unlike countries with similar or even worse debt to GDP ratios like Japan, the US, and Canada France is pretty hamstrung when it comes to tackling the issue. Most countries would focus on exports across a number of sectors however France is pretty limited with aircraft, spacecraft, vehicles, and luxury goods being among their top exports. In a time of a bad economy those are not things that people are going to go out and buy.

Japan for instance is a huge electronics exporter and even in a down economy various sectors within electronics that they export will remain critical. Canada might be a huge oil exporter right now but they are also a huge gold producer and have a very very interesting rare earths industry that is emerging as well. Finally with the US as much as Americans dump on our own country for the extreme trade deficit we do export not only a crap load of oil and natural gas but military equipment and most important of all.... Agricultural products.

France and most of the EU has chased off or made completely unprofitable a ton of industries including emerging tech. Japan and the US have not only long invested in these spaces but are in prime position to fly in part to them. Canada could end up being a huge supplier of the critical minerals needed to produce these products thus locking in there future for now as well.

Solution There is no easy answer to the solution problem. Even if Macron steps down with how I have learned the French government functions and with how split it is there isnt even a clear path forward. If Macron stays and calls another round of snap elections I think it is safe to say nothing will change compared to what is going on now. If anything there might be further gains by the far left and right as people get sick and tired of the three most centralized parties.

If he steps down as President an election has to be held within 20-50 days once the Constitutional Court clears his resignation. From here this is where it gets very interesting because the main challenger to Macron and the top 2027 Presidential contender Marine Le Pen was banned earlier this year from running for office for 5 years.

Le Pen has been branded a far right figure by those in Europe and what she and others in her party were convicted of, misuse of public funds to pay staff, kinda sorta smells like dirty politics. What makes her trial and conviction look even worse is how other French parties were tied to this whole investigation and the French Prime Minister in January (whose Democratic Movement was one of the other parties linked to this) François Bayrou said the charges were "unfair" and called the immediate disqualification of Le Pen "very concerning". This entire investigation and court battle helped fuel her party from a fringe to a powerhouse and direct threat to Macron.

With Le Pen unable to run it is likely her protégé would run, Jordan Bardella. A former Prime Minister under Macron Édouard Philippe who left Macron's party and formed his own called Horizons has declared his intention to run. Philippe remains popular despite his ties to Macron. Since Macron's party does not have a clear successor that is an empty spot for now. Finally we have Jean-Luc Mélenchon the leader of the far left coalition who is also likely to run and be a least a disrupter here.

If Macron decides to try and stay it has been made clear by the National Front (party led by Le Pen) that they will sink every new Prime Minister that Macron chooses.

Final Thoughts Whoever inherits this government either within the next few months or in 2027 is in for a rough rough time. Pension reform was forced through last year and talks of postponing its implementation to try and smooth things over might help initially with the public but its not a long term solution. Ideally, France would recruit technological talent to the country but given the EU rules and regulations for industries like AI that talent will and has both looked and moved else ware.

Unless there is some unifying figure I do not know of that exists in France that would have the popularity and trust to implement some significant changes and win over the populous this who thing seems like it will continue to drag on until the population gets fed up or someone emerges to unite sizeable factions.