Google has said again and again since announcing the change that sideloading isn't going anywhere, but it's definitely not going to be as easy. The new information confirms app installs will be more reliant on the cloud, and devs can expect new fees, but there will be an escape hatch for hobbyists. (emphasis added)
Confirming app verification status will be the job of a new system component called the Android Developer Verifier, which will be rolled out to devices in the next major release of Android 16. Google explains that phones must ensure each app has a package name and signing keys that have been registered with Google at the time of installation. This process may break the popular FOSS storefront F-Droid.
Even though Google's largely automated verification process has been described as simple, it's still going to cost developers money. The verification process will mirror the current Google Play registration fee of $25, which Google claims will go to cover administrative costs.
One of the top concerns among Android users is that verification will be used to kill apps that Google doesn't like; ad-blockers, for example.
It's easy to imagine Google changing or reinterpreting the rules at some point to do just that. Google does have a history of lumping its least favorite software in with malware. Recent changes to make Chrome extensions safer also happened to kill some of the most popular and effective ad-blockers. Funny how that works.
When it announced developer verification, it said the process would not evaluate the content of an app. However, Google now clarifies that it will be on the lookout for malware in sideloaded apps. Google says it won't enforce any of the other Play Store rules—it's only interested in apps that could pose "a high degree of harm."
What's the saying about having a bridge to sell?
Here's the video that the Ars Technica article references: