pull down to refresh

If gold is a good metric then the dollar and fiat currencies may be dying faster, but what about oil? Oil is stable or even going down depending on the chart period. Where is the truth in all of that? Maybe as fiat currencies are being destroyed faster the economic calculation is getting crazy, or maybe oil is not scarce at all as they told us in the 70' and 80', maybe there's more oil being produced than money being printed.

Oil is not a store of value asset. It's price is determined by near-term supply and demand factors.

reply

Yes, I agree but the propaganda is that it's scarce and we're using too much of it.

reply

It is scarce. That doesn't mean it's a great store of value asset and it doesn't mean it can't get less expensive over time.

Production technology has improved, new reserves have been found, and substitutes have improved. All of those put downward pressure on the price.

reply

My point is it's getting cheaper in dollars terms and the dollars are much easier to create than oil.

reply

Perhaps there's a constraint on dollar production that you aren't considering

reply

Maybe that's the case, while at the same time actors selling dollar and dollar bonds while buying gold

reply
  • Oil has a very elastic supply to demand
  • In liquid form, it is perfectly suitable for engineering application, but its volatility (as in, physical volatility, not as in VIX), inflammability make for terrible and dangerous storage options, and transportation (especially, safe transportation) is even more expensive.
  • It has terrible fungibility and checking its authenticity is impossible without specialised knowledge and tool.

All these make oil terrible as store of value, or medium of exchange, i.e. bad money.

Now, I don't know if more oil on the net is being produced vs money being printed, but given how easily the OPEC countries raise/cut production suggests the elasticity itself prevents a sustained price rise like you see for Gold.

reply

Gold has traditionally been seen as a store of value rather than just a commodity so when it rises sharply against fiat currencies it often signals weakening confidence in those currencies. Oil on the other hand is far more influenced by supply and demand cycles geopolitical factors and technological changes.

It is possible for fiat currencies to lose purchasing power while certain commodities remain stable or even decline if production outpaces consumption. In other words the monetary side and the commodity side can move independently. Gold responds more directly to monetary concerns oil responds more directly to physical market forces...