Timeline sounds reasonable. US has an advantage in that it can sort of balkanize into states - but it doesn't resolve the underlying public institution inefficiency and thus inability to provide safety.
Trying to get better projections around this timeline can feel a bit like abstract over-intellectualizing. But, I think it has very real repercussions. For example, if one needs to spend years to get second passports for their whole family or learn a new language or build an expertise in MMA & marksmanship those are all high-cost preparations that deserve well thought out projections. Suddenly the 2030s doesn't seem like its that far away!
Timeline sounds reasonable. US has an advantage in that it can sort of balkanize into states - but it doesn't resolve the underlying public institution inefficiency and thus inability to provide safety.
Trying to get better projections around this timeline can feel a bit like abstract over-intellectualizing. But, I think it has very real repercussions. For example, if one needs to spend years to get second passports for their whole family or learn a new language or build an expertise in MMA & marksmanship those are all high-cost preparations that deserve well thought out projections. Suddenly the 2030s doesn't seem like its that far away!