Former US ambassador to China Nick Burns has seen China from the inside and understands the challenge to US and the West. Most Americans do not understand and still vastly under estimate Chinas strength and rapidly growing challenge to US wealth, power and hegemony.

The following is a WSJ subscriber newsletter reporting his assessment of China-

'Nick Burns didn’t go to China looking for a fight.

He arrived as the U.S. ambassador in 2022, a seasoned diplomat from the “engagement” school—a generation that believed Washington could work with Beijing. But he returned earlier this year with a starkly different view, his stance hardened by the reality on the ground.

“I went to China with hawkish views and returned to the U.S. even more hawkish than when I arrived,” Burns told the Aspen Security Forum in July. “I saw up close the true nature of its authoritarian government and its ambition to undercut the U.S. at nearly every turn.”

Burns’s evolution isn't just a personal journey; it's a microcosm of a broader, sometimes painful awakening across Washington.

I recently asked Burns, now a professor at Harvard Kennedy School of Government, what changed his mind. It wasn’t theory, but facts, he said. Burns had witnessed China’s relentless push for power: ramming Filipino ships in sovereign waters, menacing Taiwan, contesting India’s border, and unleashing widespread cyber-attacks on America. He saw the “terrible, inhumane conditions” of wrongfully detained Americans and the chokehold on religious freedom. When Chinese officials told him his job was to be a “positive, uncritical bridge,” Burns said his reply was blunt: his job was to defend American interests.

From that front-row seat, Burns now offers a strategic playbook for the coming decades: four crucial lessons intended for America to navigate its relationship with a more assertive and aggressive China.

First, this is a fierce, long-term competition for military, technological, and economic dominance. It’s a battle of ideas, Burns said: human freedom versus an authoritarian surveillance state. Acknowledging this isn't warmongering; it's realism. The primary task for Washington, he said, is to manage this rivalry with strength and clarity to prevent it from spiraling into conflict.

Second, “our allies are our superpower,” Burns said. This is America's decisive asymmetric advantage. China has 14 neighbors and no treaty allies, save one with North Korea. The U.S. has a formidable network of powerful democracies in the Indo-Pacific and Europe who share its concerns.

As Burns noted, when the U.S. adds the power of its alliance system to its own, America is “significantly more powerful” than China. Antagonizing friends in Japan, South Korea, or Europe with punitive tariffs isn't tough—it's a “strategic mistake,” as Burns put it, that weakens the U.S.’s hand against its primary competitor.

Third, be sophisticated. The relationship isn't a monolith. Burns framed it as 80% competition and 20% cooperation. That means the U.S. must be able to multitask–fiercely competing on technology and security while soberly engaging on issues where the country's interests align, like climate change and stopping the flow of fentanyl that kills tens of thousands of Americans every year. This isn't weakness; it's smart power.

While some in the business community may argue that this fierce competition jeopardizes economic ties, Burns’s perspective makes it clear that ignoring Beijing's aggression poses a far greater risk to long-term American security and prosperity.

Finally, compete with the government, but connect with the people. While the two governments are locked in rivalry, Burns said, the U.S. must keep the lines between the two societies open. Encouraging students, reviving tourism, and fostering understanding among citizens is the long-term investment that Burns said will prevent inevitable competition from becoming unavoidable catastrophe.

The message from Burns couldn't be clearer. The era of wishful thinking on China is over. The challenge is real, the stakes are immense, and the only way forward is with a strategy forged not in hope, but in the hard-won clarity of experience.'