I'd agree. I think that that is the more probable scenario.

But at the same time, I can imagine that if in the immediate aftermath of the fork, if forkcoin was worth more, then it wouldn't take long for network effects to make that insurmountable.

Diehard bitcoiners would lose financially and struggle with it immensely - they'd probably resemble BCashers - when the correction action could be to uncorrupt forkcoin.