We won’t know whether the two lines actually cross until October 17 — when the next official data is released. But unless reserve managers have bought a cool $200bn of US Treasuries in July and August, it looks very likely.
And FT rejects;
How much does this actually matter though? Probably not as much as some people want it to.
Firstly, it should be noted that the narrative of central banks fleeing the Treasury market is overdone. The crossing of these two lines are mostly the result of the 38 per cent jump in gold prices in 2025 — which is at least partly itself caused by central banks buying bullion.
In other words, this central bank reserves phenomenon is mostly about recent price action rather than a fundamental and dramatic shift out of Treasuries and into the yellow metal.
Right but not for every country. The rising powers like India and Brazil have been accumulating the yellow metal more than ever
Secondly, it’s important to remember that central bank reserve data is a little iffy, so it should be taken with a grain of salt.