The US dollar has long held its position as the world’s dominant reserve currency, underpinning global trade and serving as a safe haven during periods of financial stress. This stability provided emerging markets (EM) with a reliable anchor for external borrowing, with the modern EM debt market beginning to take shape following the introduction of Brady bonds in 1989.

Named after then US Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady, these instruments were initially designed to help Latin American countries restructure defaulted loans into tradable securities backed by US Treasury collateral. By transforming illiquid bonds into standardised, marketable instruments, the Brady Plan not only resolved a major debt crisis but also laid the foundation for a broader, more liquid EM debt market.

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Changing Tides

The Price of Autonomy?

A local pivot

Ultimately, the evolution of EMs moving away from being largely dependent on the dollar to being able to better utilise local currency markets highlights a pivotal shift. Initially, hard currency debt opened doors to global capital but came with the cost of anchoring EM policy to external monetary cycles. the growing depth of the market reflects a growing confidence in domestic matters, but there is still a long way to go, with foreign ownership of these bonds still being relatively low.

However, as central banks demonstrate greater independence and credibility, and as investors continue to seek new opportunities, local currency debt should stand to benefit and become more widely used within global portfolios. This doesn’t signal the end of dollar dominance, but it does show that EMs are increasingly able to set their own rules.

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