The HODLER's dilemma and geography, both getting to me. Yes, I hold a few Sats, run my own knots node and eager to contribute to the Bitcoin eco-system.
But in the past few days, I have seen a few contents around Bitcoin that advises us to spend Bitcoin as well, as, otherwise, it will forever remain a speculative asset and eventually will just die. It may or may not be true, but makes me sad thinking about the status quo.
I am in Hong Kong (not a local, and not entirely by choice...long story) which is probably one of the worst places in the world to be a Bitcoiner, except mainland China. On-ramp/off-ramp is full of friction, and since half of the GDP of this city-state comes from established trad-fi, their regulatory capture prevents any meaningful adoption on the merchant side.
Then, the problem is, in most places (likely not only Hong Kong), the number of Bitcoin friendly merchants is so few, that for any specific goods or services, they got a near monopoly or duopoly. If I am just swiping my master-card, then the merchants will obviously compete among themselves for my business, to give me whatever I need.
But not so if I want to spend my Bitcoin, obviously. Rather, the handful of merchants that are there, seem to charge an exorbitant premium to Bitcoiners who want the privilege of spending their Sats, and many Bitcoiners are ready to do it to support the eco-system. Basically, it all comes down to the number of people on two sides of the table, whichever side got fewer actors (BTC friendly merchants), each actor got more leverage.
And that tells me there are far more Bitcoiners than Bitcoin friendly businesses, which creates the power imbalance?
As an icing on the top, even those so called Bitcoin friendly merchants, just do a spot conversion to Fiat with an intermediary, passing the amount charged by the intermediary to customers. So it seems to benefit largely the exchanges.
So, may be my view is more pessimistic being in Asia, and hopefully the landscape is better in the freer economies...but is there any way to ascertain that adoption is really growing to use Bitcoin as money (which means both store of value and medium of exchange)?
And is there a market driven way to counter the lack of merchant adoption? Let's be honest, no government will ever help us, no government will ever mandate (or even make it easier for) merchants to take Bitcoin...so that needs to happen more organically, free market driven way for merchant adoption to grow?