That's a good take
Personally, from where I'm sitting, I see it as two horse race between:
Nostr + bitcoin IPFS + altcoins
Not to belittle other efforts, I wish them well. There's various other things out there that may change the game, but more or less those two, have, and will continue to have traction, imho
Smart would be to pivot to one or the other, at least as a side-gig, nostr likely being the non-fiat option
The linked data world has some traction but no payments, in general
IPFS ahead, but nostr with some momentum