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I don't know what her opinion is on the cycle, but I'm sure she has been asked about it, considering that she is interviewed constantly.
I would be genuinely interested in what she has to say about it- it just seems the four year cycle was talked about a lot as we approached the halving and rising part of the cycle but now that we approach the time when it would tend to decline in price it is much less talked about. Reading between the lines of her post it seems she might say 'this time is different due to institutional adoption' etc and maybe it is. I agree that governments are hellbent on attacking BTC privacy via the KYC angle and that angle taken to its ultimate extent could result in effectively banning privately held Bitcoin. What I don't get is her lack of concern about Treasury and institutional accumulation when these will all be KYCed and in the case of ETFs and Strategy give governments additional pretext to ban private custody as they will say- 'you can still enjoy BTC price exposure/SoV via ETFs or Strategy shares so there is no real need for private custody and the money laundering and criminal elements that might misuse it.' All fiat issuing governments inherently have strong motive to preserve their fiat MoE hegemony and power and so to channel Bitcoin narrative into it being a KYCed speculative commodity achieves that preservation while suppressing any development of P2P payments.
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What I don't get is her lack of concern about Treasury and institutional accumulation when these will all be KYCed and in the case of ETFs and Strategy give governments additional pretext to ban private custody as they will say- 'you can still enjoy BTC price exposure/SoV via ETFs or Strategy shares so there is no real need for private custody and the money laundering and criminal elements that might misuse it.'
I don't agree with this at all, but I have to respect Lyn's opinion. She knows more about this than me.
Re the four year cycle, I guess it doesn't really matter. There will be bull and bear markets. Personally I have no doubt we're looking at a real bear market in the not so distant future, but that's because this is now my third cycle and it just has the same feel. Not very analytical, I know.
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