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Is it just me or is the article completely confusing correlation and causation of segwit adoption? It also seems to be setting fiat price of BTC at current levels as a constant.
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tl;dr: BOC predicts bitcoin's market cap in year 2040 to be about $30T, but only as long as security budget doesn't increase.
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We find that Segwit reduced fee revenue by about 70%. Fee revenue is maximized at a block size of about 0.6 megabytes when Segwit adoption remains at current levels. In addition, large sustained price increases are required to keep mining rewards constant in the long run.
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so the canadian central bank wrote a whole ass paper on the effect of segwit on Bitcoin fees (!?)
this directly relates to a discussion @Truthcoin and I recently had about the convexity of fees relative to block space, and whether you can strategically curtail block space to target higher fee revenue.
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More info on the podcast with Paul Sztorc (Truthcoin) here in earlier post on SN:
On The Brink with Castle Island - Paul Sztorc (Drivechain) on Bitcoin Security Budget and the Importance Merge Mining - Listen on Fountain #9368 https://play.fountain.fm/episode/6476544317 https://onthebrink-podcast.com/drivechains

"There is very little economics literature on fees in Bitcoin" -- gotta branch out, BoC. see my 2019 talk eg
And, nic__carter's Twitter thread, unrolled:
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